Thursday, August 16, 2007

Strategy if FOMC were to cut rates

Lets suppose for a minute the the FOMC surprised everyone and cut the interest rate. And if their wording is soothing to the markets (their statement must acknowledge that they understand that recession is possible, or at least that economic growth is slowing more than they expected) and in invokes a big buying rush.

What would I do?

It would be difficult to pick one stock over another as just about everything is oversold all the way to China and back. So how would I play a massive market bull rally. I would buy ETF's for various unit and/or sectors. I would take advantage of the general market advances by taking advantage of the ETF's.

I would buy the following: (in normal swing trade size increments, 10% of capital on each trade)

QLD - a 2x gain for each point advance in the Nasdaq 100

DDM - a 2x gain for each point move in the DJIA 30

SSO - a 2x gain for each point advance in the S&P 500

UYM - a 2x gain for each point advance in the materials sector

URE - a 2x gain for each point advance in the real estate sector

GLD - Tracks the price of Gold. (a rate cut could impact the value of the dollar in which case it would be expected to see the cost of Gold to rise)

Of course each trade still has to be monitored closely and if a rally is real then these put you into a good spot to capitalize on a broad market rally. IF the rally is a fake and it pulls back then you sell these quick.

This is how I will play if there was a surprise rate cut and it is viewed by the market positively.

1 Comment:

Lisa said...

The Feds create the mess, but for them to do an emergency rate cut(!) will only prolong the agony, IMO. The market should be allowed to sort itself out, so we can get back to business. Or a reasonable facsimile thereof. Too many computer programs trading these days, not enough human brains. And that's my rant for the day, thank you for listening. Tomorrow is another day and I hope it's a great one for everyone! Now back to your regular programming.

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