New Watch List coming soon

Keep an eye out for new watch list trades over the next couple of days. I'm working on new setup's and will post them shortly.

The Day that Was - July 20th 2007

The day started out with Biovail (BVF) releasing bad news stating that they received a letter from the FDA rejecting their drug submission. I announced this morning that I was selling my position in the pre market trading to close out the trade. I got multiple fills on my sale but the average sale price I got was $23.35. Recall that the trade on BVF was started on 7/13/07 with a 1/2 position. BVF never made it to the next step where I would have added the remaining funds to the trade. This is one reason why I scale into a trade. You grab the low price upon the technical parameters for the trade being met, then you add to the trade upon confirmation the trade is working out. With BVF it broke above the buy point on 7/13/07 and I entered the trade with only a 1/2 of my normal swing trade funds. Then BVF started pulling back when the markets came back down. So my trade on BVF never reached 'full swing trade size'. By scaling into the positions I reduce the risk to my total capital until I see more evidence that the trade is going in my favor. Bad news from companies can't be avoided, it happens to all of them at some point. That is why as swing traders we slice up our total capital into pieces and never put more than 10% of our total capital into any one trade. Limit the risk to your total capital... That is the only way to win in the long run. Never put all your money into one trade!

Even with the 10.9% loss on BVF today the overall RebelTrader portfolio gained an additional 1.02% today. Not bad considering the market was terrible today. Good gains from WDC, NHWK, WWAT helped the portfolio stay green today in this otherwise bad day in the markets.

This morning I highlighted a small cap stock that had a technical setup which looked right for consideration as a swing trade. I set two buy points, the first at $1.55, and the second at $1.65. The first buy point was reached today and I scaled into FEEC with a 1/2 position. When FEEC moves up past $1.65 I will scale in with the remaining 1/2 of my swing trade funds. FEEC is a company in the foreign energy market and is involved in the exploration of natural gas. This stock may not move instantly upwards overnight but the chart was right for an entry. I will keep a close eye on this one. The potential for large gains is there as is the case with many small cap stocks however it comes with extra risk, and that is why one should never play small cap stocks with all of your money. You should only have one active speculative play at a time in your portfolio. WWAT is the other speculative play I did and that has paid off very well. Even though I still have half of my shares in WWAT it is now in self sustaining mode. I have a stop loss set and the trade will close itself out if the price falls (and that will still be a profit) or I will sell the remaining shares upon the next price advance. Note: Today WWAT started moving back up again and is still looking good on the chart.

In the late afternoon I added to my position on NHWK. After the large move up yesterday I was anticipating a low volume pullback today and would wait for the next ideal point to scale in the remaining funds. But NHWK defied the broad market today and continued upward today. I added the remaining 1/2 of my trade at $20.76. I see NHWK being a trade that will probably be a couple weeks to reach it's full potential. After a move like it has had the past two days there will be some profit taking in the stock but the chart is showing an increase in demand so I am looking for at least 10% total gain on this trade within the next couple weeks.

The broad markets were reacting today to the news from Caterpillar and Google. Both had less then perfect earnings and shock waves went through the markets today. In addition to that the financial/broker sectors continues to be an anchor on the markets dragging them down. We need to see a rebound in the financial sectors soon, otherwise this drag on the markets will start pulling harder on other sectors.

I want to thank Daniel and Michael for your nice comments today. Earlier in the month I said that I was going to post a series of articles on the basics of swing trading, a 'swing trading 101' based on my studies and experience. But time has been hard to find and I have not had a chance to get the first installment posted here yet. But I will indeed keep my word and in time you will see here my series of articles on how I swing trade, what do I use, what I look for, technical analysis, and money management.

I wish all a great weekend !

Chuck (Fp80)

NightHawk Radiology (NHWK)

I am adding the second 1/2 of my swing trade to NHWK here at $20.76.

Market Update

Not much to report here. Markets are generally down across the board. Computer hardware is one sector that is doing well as evidenced by my swing trade on Western Digital (WDC). Today it is up over 7%. That brings the gains of WDC up to about 15% so far.

FEEC is slowly moving up and as this attracts attention and buyers take a piece here and there I see this as being a good swing trade over the coming weeks.

WWAT is getting new buyers today and is working it's way back up. Remember, I still have 1/2 of my position in WWAT and will essentially just let them ride the stock. When the stock seems to be done then I will take the gains on the remainder of the WWAT shares.

NHWK, the swing trade I opened yesterday is also doing well today. I was expecting at least a small pullback after yesterdays huge gain, but so far no one is selling. Good for us! That just makes the gains run up even faster for the RebelTrader swing trade.

Just an ugly day

This is about how I can some up the trading today. GOOG and CAT really put a damper on things. Add to that options expiration, Friday profit taking, and oil and we have another pullback in the broad markets.

My WDC swing trade is still green! Nice to see some green on the screen this morning somewhere.. Financial/brokers are once again hitting lows.

Market starts out terrible

The Google and Caterpillar news really set the tone for the early session. Profit taking is taking place in just about all sectors at the moment.

The RebelTrader swing trade WDC is up another 5% this morning!

I took a position (1/2 to begin with) in FEEC at $1.56.

Apple tried once again to break above $140 but has been selling off ever since. Will Apple hold the gains today? The way the charts read the answer is no.

Pre Market - July 20th 2007

The futures are down in the US markets this morning. And most of that in my view is on the bad news from Google last night(we also have options expiration today so that adds extra volatility). We also have Caterpillar (CAT) adding to the negative view this morning as they reported earnings this morning and they missed expectations by a fairly large margin.

I think Google sent their shareholders a wake up call. People have been buying up Google thinking they were infallible. But last night Google revealed that they are not so perfect as everyone (including analysts) have been touting. Google has been damaged and it will be a while before it trades back at the levels it was at. I see Apple doing the same thing. Everyone thinks Apple is perfect and they can never do any wrong. But one day Apple will have their own wake up call. It may come next week as Apple will release their earnings.

Earlier I had to sell BVF on news of a FDA letter telling the company that they were not going to approve one of their drugs. BVF has settled at support around $21.50 and already I am seeing some buying come back in as speculators are speculating that BVF will resolve the FDA issue and the drug will eventually be approved. But as swing traders we don't want to wait for something that may never happen. We take our money out and move on. BVF was a loss but that is why we divide our capital up into pieces and only expose one piece to a trade. The goal is to always protect the total capital. A loss in one piece is made up in the gains of the other pieces. It's all about having more winners than losers.

RebelTrader swing trade Western Digital (WDC) is trading up in pre market on upgrades and good earnings from SeaGate last night.

Watch FEEC

US Oil tycoon Boone Pickens is currently in China to explore natural gas energy business opportunities. One company that operates in China and is in the business of exploring for natural gas (methane in this case) is FEEC.

Looking at the chart I see a large amount of buying on June 18th. Following that buying surge there was profit taking which brought the price back down to support at $1.40. Since that time FEEC has been slowly building up for another advance.

The chart analysis tells me that a buy on the move over $1.55 (1/2 position) and then a confirmation buy (next 1/2 position) on the move over $1.65.

This stock trades thinly at times but I feel this is just starting to attract attention now.

This is a speculative play and we only have one speculative play in our portfolio at any one time. Risk is always higher with the smaller stocks and that is why we never play more than one at a time. You don't want to expose too much of your portfolio to high risk. So we only have one speculative play at a time.

Live chart

** Biovail (BVF) - UPDATE -

I'm selling BVF in pre market now. Biovail just announced it received a "non approval" letter from the FDA for one of their drugs they submitted for FDA approval.

Can't control surprise news. When a bad news surprise hits you close the trade and stem the loss.

Western Digital (WDC) - Update

This morning analyst WR Hambrecht upgrades WDC to a 'buy'. This will add some additional momentum to the trade in the short term I anticipate.

The Day that Was - July 19th 2007

A good day for the RebelTrader portfolio. This morning I entered a new swing trade on NightHawk Radiology (NHWK) at $19.40 (1/2 position to start with). NHWK continued upward throughout the day and closed the day up 7.4% ( up 3.9% from my entry point). I had NHWK on my watch list since Tuesday and today it performed very well and met my buy point. I will monitor NHWK for the next entry point for the remaining 1/2. With the big gain today I expect to see some pullback on profit taking but I don't see that lasting too long before it continues up again.

Today I sold NetGear (NTGR) because I saw what was starting to look like it was topping out. That means that there just was not enough buyers left to out number the sellers and that we were going to end the day with a doji (doji: The name given to a chart pattern which signals indecision). With that trading pattern developing I decided to take the gains and close the trade. NTGR provided a 5.1% gain in 10 days. Remember that it is not important to squeeze every penny out of a trade, what is important is that you have more winners than you do losers. Don't focus on how big the gain is, instead focus on keeping the losses small. The gains will add up.. Every gain is a winner!

I said this morning that I would watch PDGI to see if there was any chance of a recovery and the trading did not show it was going to recover so I closed the PDGI trade to keep the loss in check. PDGI closed with a loss of 6.2%. The sector just did not gain enough strength to lift PDGI.

Today WWAT continued strong buying in the morning on very heavy volume. But I know from experience that it would not be long before profit takers would step in. After a 25% advance in just two days there would be a lot of profit takers. So I waited for the buyers to continue to buy up WWAT in the morning and then I sold 1/2 of the position at $2.39. That was a 30% gain in 7 days from the first buy point I entered WWAT. The profit taking increased as the day went on and that is OK, that was expected. I am holding onto the remainder of the shares for the next buying surge. That may not happen right away but if it does then I'll sell the remaining 1/2 on the next upward move. I have set a stop loss on the remaining shares at $2.15 (even if the price comes down to that point and my trade is closed it is still a profit on the remaining shares!). At the end of the day the remaining 1/2 of my swing trade is at 14% average gain.

My swing trade in GRP also advanced well today and that trade continues to do well. Same with WDC, and after the market closed today Seagate (STX) reported their earnings and they were good. This should lift the disk drive sector and WDC with it! WDC was trading up another 1.8% in after hours.

BIG finally got some buying today and started lifting that swing trade back up. I'm watching it closely.

Some news on the earnings front. Google reported their earnings after the market closed and for the first time ever they missed the analysts estimates. They missed by 3 cents on the EPS. This sent shock waves through the Google investors and a massive sell off took place. At one point Google was down almost $50 per share (8%). This is a large event, never has Google missed their earnings and this will certainly put the brakes on Google bulls. This will have a substantial impact on the internet sector. In sympathy with Google; Baidu (the Chinese search engine giant) (BIDU) was also trading down in after hours. What we are likely to see now is analysts will downgrade Google, this will further push the share price down in the near term I feel.

SanDisk (SNDK) released good numbers and investors were happy as in after hours the trading was up 6.5%. This will help the PC hardware sector, and may even rub off a little on my Western Digital (WDC) trade.. :)

Microsoft (MSFT) released their earnings also and they were fair. The market responded with mixed reactions and in after hours was trading down 2%.

The financial sector today was still a speed bump for the bulls. Kind of like driving a car with one foot on the gas and the other foot on the brakes. That is what the rising oil prices is doing to the markets. We are now near $76.00 for crude oil/barrel.

I'm keeping my eye on SCUR. This is a stock I mentioned yesterday. It is nearing a buy point when it crosses above the trend line.

On Monday I posted a chart for Apple saying that I feel the $140 price was going to be difficult to break. Today Apple tried to break above $140 but it could not hold the gains and came back down to close right at $140.00. And in after hours trading Apple is down to $139.00. If you look at a chart for Apple (candlestick chart) you will see what we call a gap up doji on lower volume. That is more often than not a signal of upward buying pressure being exhausted. In technical analysis the chart says Apple will pullback now. Eventually Apple will resume a new upward run but not right now according to the chart.

Good day to be a Rebel !

Earnings

A busy afternoon in store after the market closes. Microsoft, Sandisk, Google, and many others reporting today. Should set the stage for tomorrows market activity.

NHWK - Update

Nighthawk (NHWK) was a buy this morning at $19.40. NHWK is now up over 8.5% on the day. These are the kind of swing trades which are best. To get a 10% gain in a short period of time is how we get to big annualized gains. NHWK had the right chart setup for making a move once it cleared the buy point. And that we got.

NetGear (NTGR) Update

NetGear (NTGR) is starting to look a little 'toppy' to me. In other words it has the markings of losing steam. The best traders always will sell into strength and not risk losing the gains.

I'm selling NTGR here and taking the gains. There might be more left in NTGR but the chart is telling me to take profits here.

Swing traders capture the quick gains and move on. NTGR has given me the quick gain and I will free up a trading slot with this sale.

NTGR was a good trade. Now time to put those profits to work into the next swing trade.

Market Update

The broad market is doing nicely so far today. Financials continue to be a laggard but many of the other sectors are doing well. The volatility index is way down (bullish) and many of the RebelTrader open swing trades are collecting more gains today.this morning I took an entry on NHWK as it met the buy criteria I established in the watch list. That stock is performing very well and is up over 7% on the day.

Microsoft (MSFT) is the next big company to report earnings. After the market closes today watch for MSFT earnings to be released.

Just a quick note

The financial sector is still a drag on the market this morning..

NetGear (NTGR) & Western Digital (WDC)

Both posting additional gains for the Rebeltrader portfolio. BIG is trying to stay green. Not giving up on BIG just yet. GRP also posting more gains to the portfolio this morning.

WWAT

WWAT still running up. Up 32% from the first rebeltrader purchase price of $1.83

Sonus Networks (SONS)

I don't have a chart analysis yet for SONS but I like the trading here this morning on SONS and feel this is a good entry point.

Rebeltrader is not taking a position here yet. Just wanted to pass along my observation. On the weekly chart SONS is setting up for a new uptrend. Will try to do a chart soon.

WWAT

WWAT is running well. I'm watching for a spot to sell 1/2 of the position and lock in the huge gains we got on this one.

Selling 1/2 here at $2.39

I am going to hold the remaining 1/2 for more gains. Stop loss on the remaining 1/2 will be $2.15 (even if the stop loss is hit on the remaining half it is still a profit!)

NHWK

Nighthawk Radiology (NHWK) has reached the buy point on my watch list.

I'm buying 1/2 position here at $19.40

PDGI

Open swing trade PDGI is in the negative column on a failed breakout. If there is no sign of a recovery this morning I will close this trade.

Titanium Metals (TIE)

TIE has been in a rut for the past year. Trading in a range from $23 to $40 (keep in mind that TIE went from $1.00 to $40 in the previous 3 years).

This morning it is being reported that Annette Simmons (a 10% owner of TIE) has increased her shares by purchasing more shares in the amount of $829,207. Maybe a signal of a new upward leg coming? Inside purchases always need to be examined for clues. Just like I did with WWAT. I will do an analysis of the chart and post it here later.

WWAT Update

Rebeltrader swing trade WWAT gained 17% yesterday. In pre market it looks as if it will open yet higher still. Will likely see 20% gains on this trade before profit taking steps in.

Pre Market - July 19th 2007

Looking for a positive open. Futures up nice after yesterday's roller coaster ride in the market. Oil is over $75.00 again and is getting close to $76.00. So far it does not seem to be impacting the general mood of the markets, yet anyway.

Some good earnings reports this morning. Honeywell (HON) beat estimates and that is a good bellweather stock in my book for market health. Each investor/trader has their own list of stocks that they use to gauge the market and Honeywell is one of those on my list.

European and Asian markets on the upside this morning.

GRP - Update

RebelTrader open swing trade received an upgrade this morning from Bank of America. They raised their rating to 'buy' and a new price target of $67.00

GRP is already performing well since I first entered the trade. This upgrade should bring some additional gains in the coming days.

The Day that Was - July 18th 2007

Right out of the gate this morning it was looking like it was going to be a really bad day. By 1pm the indices were down hard and it was looking ugly. The financial sector was a big killer of the market today and it was for the most part expected. That ugly sub prime issue was on the table again after that announcement late yesterday from Bear Stearns regarding two of their hedge funds being worthless. And some earnings from Intel and Yahoo were not great which put an ice cube into the hot tech sector. But by the end of the day the ice cube had melted and we had a fairly good recovery across the board in the last two hours. We still ended the day down but no where near the levels we saw earlier in the day. Financial stocks were still badly beaten down at the end of the day.

Oil hit $75.00 today and that did not help the overall market either. With that the energy sector was one of the few sectors today which saw buying interest. The railroad stocks were one of today's winners after CSX topped expectations with their record revenues. Investors were also looking for Ben Bernanke to say something to lift their spirits but he only added more gloom by saying that the sub prime issue had deteriorated significantly.

At the end of the day the big money started buying into the beaten down prices in the hedge that today's market drop will be short lived and we will once again resume an upward march.

Rebeltrader open swing trades GRP and WWAT saw gains today with WWAT getting 17% on news of a new solar array farm to be installed in Spain. I expect some profit taking on the WWAT surge tomorrow but that is to be expected on anything that runs up 17% in one day. I won't panic if I see some early profit taking. I did say at the beginning of the WWAT play that it would likely experience some large swings and that is normal as it works it's way up. I may sell half of the position tomorrow to lock in the gains and let the remainder ride for a while longer. But I will wait to see how the trading looks tomorrow before deciding.

One observation I have today is that I am seeing the number of "sell the news" reactions increasing. I am somewhat disturbed by that in that I sense some large money is taking their gains very quickly off the table these days. Almost like a squirrel will bury his nuts for the winter. Lets hope that the increase in "selling on the news" reactions I am seeing is not a sign of the bulls getting ready for a long winter. For now the charts say we are still bullish so bullish it is still, albeit cautious still.

After the market closed today Ebay released their numbers and they were solidly good. Also the numbers from IBM were good. If we can get the financial sector to recover then we will be on our way to green again.

WWAT - Update

RebelTrader pick WWAT is doing great today on news of a solar energy project they are being awarded. The portfolio is gaining very well and is now up to a 14% gain today on WWAT !

Portfolio holding GRP is also making good gains today and is up over 2.5% today. So even with the entire market in bad shape today there is still money to be made.

VIX on the way up again

The volatility index is once again showing what we already know. The market is a mess today.

Market Sentiment

The feeling on the Street is sour. There is not much to get excited over this morning as the financial sector is weighing heavily. And the comments from Ben Bernanke to Congress so far have not done anything to move money this morning. If anything his words so far have been somewhat cautious and what the market was wanting to hear today was some solid confidence that things are OK. The market did not get that from Ben.. yet.

New lows are outpacing new highs today so far. And declines are way higher than advances across the boards.

Rough Morning

Bears came running out of the gate when the bell rang. Bulls no where to be seen just yet.
Financial sector hurting this morning. Other sectors following along.

Watch Silicon Image (SIMG)

Analyst expecting a good earnings statement on August 2nd. This kind of a headline can cause what we call a "pre earnings run". Traders and other big money buy up the stock and the price ramps up into the earnings day. Then sells off on the news.

I'm watching for SIMG to clear the line on the chart to buy. If this trade 'confirms' and becomes a buy then it will be a quick swing trade as the intention will be to cash out before the earnings are actually released. SIMG has an 8% short interest.

Live chart

Static chart shown here.

Western Digital (WDC)

Current Rebeltrader swing trade (WDC) got a boost this morning from analyst Needham. They previewed the upcoming earnings release and they feel that they will meet or beat the expectations on strong OEM demand for hard drives.

This may add to the pre earnings run which benefits us. Then we will sell before the earnings to protect our gains. Holding swing trade through earnings releases is too risky.

Always keep an eye on my charts..

Keep an eye on the charts in my public charts list on stockcharts.com. One of the charts I identified as a potential move was VSEA.

See what happened when VSEA broke through the trend line resistance.

Pre Market - July 18th 2007

The financial sector got a boost early this morning with good earnings from JP Morgan (JPM). But later got a shot in the foot when Punk Ziegel downgraded the brokerage sector. Financial sector remains in the spot light today.

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that mortgage lenders Countywide Financial, Option One Mortgage, and First Franklin Financial will stop issuing loans with ties to the sub prime lending industry. Most notably mentioned are the 2/28 type loans, which carry the highest risk.

Pfizer (PFC) released earnings this morning and they missed the analysts estimates.

European and Asian stocks are down fairly substantial this morning.

Today we have Fed Chief Ben Bernanke speaking to the US Congress. The markets will be listening closely!

Futures are currently down.

New Watch List Item - SCUR

Add SCUR to your watch list. The technical analysis of this stock indicates a building momentum along with improving financial health. This company is involved with security software. At this time the stock is right up against a trend line (resistance). A buy point is only when it breaks above the trend.

This company reports earnings on July 26th AMC (AMC: After Market Close) so it is too risky to take an entry before then. If on the 26th the company reports good numbers then watch it for the move over resistance.

Live chart

Static chart shown here in this post.

The day that Was - July 17th 2007

Sub Prime made the headlines again after the market closed. It is being reported that a comment made by Bear Sterns is that two of their hedge funds with ties to the sub prime mortgage business are now essentially worthless. Reportedly now worth less than 10 cents on the dollar. I said last week that we have not heard the end of the sub prime woes and I'll say it again here. The sub prime problem has yet to fully propagate into other areas/sectors. There will be more headlines concerning sub prime in the months to come.

The financial sector needs to be watched closely as it is a heavyweight in the markets. Where the financials go the rest of the market follows in time. We must get some good earnings reports from the big finance giants in the coming days and weeks to lift the sector. Today there was profit taking ahead of what I see to be apprehension on the part of the traders of more bad news on the financial sector front.

Today On2 Technologies (ONT) hit my stop and my trade was closed automatically. I sold my shares at $2.55. A shame too, because I am still bullish on ONT. But rules are rules, discipline in trading is the ONLY way you will survive and win the game for the long term. If you never set limits (stop loss) for your investments then you are on the road to a financial disaster, for you are relying on hope and not a plan. All winners on Wall Street will tell you the same thing, they have a plan on when they exit their trades/investments, no ifs, ands, or buts. Preservation of capital comes first.

Remember that you have to earn more gains to make up for your losses. Lets say you have a stock that you bought at $20 a share last year, and the current price is $10 a share. You have lost 50% of your money on that investment. Now in order to get your money back (break even) that stock now has to increase 100%. That is why the experts and pros always cut their losses quickly and within a set limit. It is easier to make up for the loss if your losses are kept small.

RebelTrader portfolio swing trade BIG (retail sector) is lagging. But looking at the sector chart I'm seeing what is looking like a bounce coming soon. So I'm still bullish on BIG as long as the sector is still bullish which it is, just in a pullback currently. The $RLX chart is telling me a rebound is near.

RebelTrader portfolio swing trade Western Digital (WDC) is in a good spot right now as that sector is in a breakout mode. Will keep WDC for as long as I can squeeze a gain out of it. NetGear (NTGR)is also on a good run and will keep an eye on it so as to not let the gains slip away if the broad markets turn sour.

GRP, the oil service sector company is set to rebound according to the oil services sector chart. I'm watching the $OSX and I see a bounce from the moving average to be the most likely event to happen.

The remainder of this week will be wild in the markets I anticipate. Be sure to have a seat belt on! Any bad earnings reports from large companies are going to be felt in the markets more than usual.

Yahoo & Intel Report

And the market did not like their data. Intel slides in after hours trading. And Yahoo also is to the downside.

This is troublesome to me as the expectations were already low on the part of the analysts. And both companies were expected to be able to beat those numbers. Intel was essentially "in line" and Yahoo was "in line" but lowers 07 guidance slightly.

There are many companies that the market looks to as a barometer for the market, Intel & Yahoo are two of those companies. We have to see how the trading ends in after hours to determine the psychological mood of the money holders.

Chart Request - MTW

Chart analysis for MTW as requested by a fellow Rebel Trader

Mid day update

The late morning - early afternoon trading has been essentially sideways. Currently the major indices are holding up well so far. Rebel Trader portfolio swing trades NTGR and WDC are up nicely.

But things won't be quiet after the market closes.. Today after the market closes we will be getting earnings reports from Yahoo (YHOO) and Intel (INTC). One thing I am concerned about regarding Intel is that the price has been running up the past few sessions in anticipation of a good report. This often leads to what is called "sell the news". Even if the numbers are good those that have been buying it up ahead of the numbers being released will sell off on the influx of new money coming in. It is always a battle with existing holders wanting to cash out and new buyers (who were waiting for earnings numbers to come out)wanting to buy in. Many times the numbers of sellers outnumbers the buyers in the short term and the stock price falls. If you ever watched a company release very good earnings numbers and then wonder why the price fell afterwards it is because of the "sell the news". Another way to look at this is that the numbers the company releases are already "priced in" the stock by the time they are released.

I wrote an article on "sell the news" some time ago, I will try to locate it and post it to the board tonight.

NightHawk Radiology (NHWK)

On my watch list I have NHWK as a buy on the move over $18.95. This buy point is approaching fast. If I did not have all 10 slots currently filled I would be adding NHWK today if it makes it above $18.95

Current open swing trades

Most of my open swing trades have opened to the upside this morning. NTGR is performing very well.

BIG has been basing around the original buy point. This stock is not catching the retail wave yet. I'm sticking with it until I see a signal that says it is not going to make it.

ONT has pulled back to the support range. Each time ONT pulls back to around the $2.60 area then some big trades go through on an uptick. Other traders are seeing this $2.60 area as a key support as well. I'm holding onto ONT

WDC is catching the beginning of a tech rally (albeit still weak). My entry on WDC could not be more perfect to take advantage of a tech rally. If Intel reports good numbers when they release their quarterly numbers then expect to see WDC and NTGR to be lifted up as well.

Crude Oil Hits $75.00

Oil reached up and touched $75.00 this morning. It let a little air out of the bulls. Will the bulls learn how to wade through the oil slicks and keep going?

Pre Market - July 17th 2007

We have some good earnings reports coming out this morning so far. JNJ beat estimates, Merrill Lynch beat estimates, and Coca Cola beats estimates. Early the futures were down but started turning upward after earnings reports were being released. The financial sector (which was a drag on the market yesterday) is today looking better. With the good earnings from Merrill and an upgrade on American Express this morning I'm looking for a rebound in the financial sector today.

Current RebelTrader swing trade NetGear (NTGR) got a boost this morning from JMP Securities. JMP says this morning that demand for NTGR products has been exceptionally strong.

We are waiting for the June PPI data to be released at 8:30am. We will see a move in the futures following the data.

The day that was - July 16th 2007

Today started out looking good. Many of the sectors were either positive or were neutral. Then without notice things started to change. For a period of time today it was as if the big money was spinning a bottle to pick what sector they would put their chips. Then the financials took a nose dive towards the end of the day.

The DOW ended the day up but when you lift the hood we actually had a down day. Declines led advances by a fairly sizable margin. On the Nasdaq the advances was 33% vs declines of 63% (4% unchanged). And those ratios were similar on the other boards.

If was a strange trading day to say the least. By lunch time it was difficult to get a handle on what the best sectors really were.

Has Apple (AAPL) reached a top ?

I am seeing signs that Apple may have exhausted it's recent run. On the attached chart I see some warning signs that indicate that the run may be over for now. Looks to me that $140.00 is going to be the limit for the time being.

Some odd trading today

First we started the day with the financial sector (which had been beaten down recently) seeing some buying. Then the volume kind of dried up before lunch time across the board. And now the financial sector is selling off again. Strength in the sectors is floating from one to the other. It would seem that the large money movers are "hunting" (maybe the better term would be fishing) for where to best put their money.

Kind of like going to an arcade and you go from one video game to another playing one quarter. You keep doing this until you find the machine you like and then you drop a ton of quarters into that machine.

Crude Oil is heading up again

There is always something that gets in the way of the bulls. Now Crude oil is over $74.00 and $75.00 is possible soon. $75.00 would be another psychological number that would strike fear in many.

Lets see if the bulls can dance their way around the oil slick..

ONT - Update

ONT has pulled back to the support level. There are many whipsaws going on this morning in many stocks. I am not concerned with ONT's pullback at this time. Watching the tape I see large block trades with an uptick going through so others out there are seeing this as the buying opportunity. I am holding my ONT position.

BIG - the retail sector is weak so far this morning. BIG is consolidating again just above the original buy point. Seems to be some confusion in the market as to which sectors the large money want to tackle. I watch some oil plays go from red to green and back to red again this morning. Seems as if the large money is re-adjusting their underwear to get ready for the next rally if it comes.

AXR

I am buying a small position on the event this buying leads to a short covering rally. High risk trade.

Long @ $50.20

AXR

This morning AXR is attracting attention. Can't find any reason why at this time. The trading has the stock above the trend line. The volume is still light so there is still a measure of risk here.

I am considering adding a small position here in the event this is the short squeeze. If I take a position to go long it will be a small position only. Risk is high with AXR.

New info: Found the PR Newswire is reporting that Amrep (AXR) is reporting their best year ever in it's history. Story here

Pre-Market July 16th 2007

We have a very busy week coming up with respect to earnings from big companies. This week we will be seeing the earnings from such names as Coca-Cola (KO), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), CSX Corp (CSX), Yahoo (YHOO), Abbott Labs (ABT), Altria (MO), E-bay (EBAY), Google (GOOG), IBM (IBM). This is just a sampling of what is coming this week. Everyday should provide some news that will have an affect on any particular sector.

The course of the markets this week will be led by what companies report when they release their earnings. All the large money managers are going to hang their hats on the financial health of the largest companies and will be particularly interested in the tech sector.

Of note this morning: Yesterday I posted a chart for NTRI in my public chart list. The buy point is on the move above $75.00. This morning Citigroup is saying they are positive on NTRI and find shares attractive at current levels, they have a price target of $96.00. If this Citigroup analyst news brings buyers to NTRI watch for the move above $75.00 to signal a buy.

SanDisk (SNDK)

One stock is of particular interest to me. I like the chart but I feel the stock has become too extended here. On Friday the daily chart was indication 'indecision' (as viewed on a daily chart). I am waiting for a pullback to spot a good entry point. The chart shown here is a weekly chart.

Some stocks don't pull back and grabbing an entry becomes "chasing the stock" , which I never recommend doing.

The RebelTrader Pledge

There are hundreds (if not thousands) of web sites on the internet for stock market trading, stock picks, education, etc. Have you even gone to a web site and they have an extensive write up about some company (typically a pink sheet stock) and the web site makes the company sound like it is going to be the next big thing. They provide detailed descriptions about how good the company is, or they might talk about how great the prospects are for the future, and they make the web site look very official and professional. BUT... have you ever clicked on their disclosure statement? Or looked at the very fine print at the bottom of their site?



Some web sites provide very detailed analysis of companies and make it sound like you need to invest right away. But the web site may actually be nothing more than a paid "pumper" (Pumper: a person or company that promotes a stock for their own benefit). In their disclosure statement you will find that the web site actually received financial or other forms of compensation for promoting the stock on their web site. Of course those web sites will always make it look like they are providing a real analysis of the company and that the stock (company) is a good investment. But their interest in writing the glowing report is not for you, it is for them and their client (the company). They get paid for making the company sound good so that more people will buy the stock.



The reason why many small companies pay money to these "pumpers" is to raise capital. The company needs money and the only way they can get it is if their shares start getting purchased. In some cases you could be buying shares of a company that is on the brink of bankruptcy or in other dire financial troubles, but you never find out about that until it is too late and your investment dollars have vanished. These web sites go to great extremes to look very official and business like, and although they do conform to the law by providing their disclosure statement they usually keep it well hidden so you don't see that (unless you go looking for it). If you stumble upon a web site, or get an email claiming that you need to invest in xyz company the first thing you need to do is DON'T. Find out first if the web site is for real, are they being paid for promoting the company? And any email (SPAM) you get telling you to buy a stock should go right into the 'deleted' folder!



Now.. it gets worse. Not only are there these web sites that are nothing more than paid pumpers. There are individuals that are pumpers too. They are not being paid to promote the stock. Instead these people may own the stock and they want others to buy it so the price will go up and in turn they benefit. So these people will lurk in the many free internet message boards where stocks are discussed and post messages like " A friend who works at xyz just told me that they are going to get a big contract", or "This company is great, I am so glad I got in on the ground floor", or one of my favorites "You better get in while you can because the price is not going to stay low for long". What these people are doing on the message boards is actually 'pumping' up the stock, making it sound good and hoping to get other people to buy it. Then when the price goes up they cash out and leave you stuck with the stock and the price usually falls after the pumpers have had their way with it.



So.. what advice do I have to give you. A lot, never believe anything you read on a yahoo financial message board. Nothing against yahoo but unfortunately that has become a breeding ground for stock pumpers and false information. There are other web sites as well out there that attract stock pushers and you always have to be careful about what you read other people publish in a message about some company. Take for example the recent news about the CEO of Whole Foods, for many years he was posting on the yahoo message boards about how great his company is and ripping apart his competition. And he was doing this in disguise, never saying who he really was. He was "pumping" his own company for his own benefit it would appear. I give the "Dumbest CEO of the Year" award to the CEO of Whole Foods for his antics on the yahoo message boards.


Ok, I said in the title of this post that I have a pledge. And I provide my pledge and complete disclosure here for all to see.

• RebelTraders has never and will never take any money to promote any stock or company.


• RebelTraders will never "pump", "push", "promote", or "suggest" any stock for my own benefit or anyone associated with me.


• RebelTraders stock picks or based solely on technical analysis and/or research of the company and is completely free from any influence of financial benefit for myself or anyone associated with me.


• Rebeltraders will not accept any money or other compensation in return for selecting a stock for mention on my web site.


• All stock picks, charts, and suggestions on my web site are made objectively and never based on drawing attention to a company or stock for my own benefit.

So there you have it. There are many good web sites on the net, but there are many bad ones too. Always be careful what you read and make sure they are not being compensated for their praise of the company.

You now know where I stand. You know that I despise "pumpers". And if I can save one person from investing their hard earned money in a stock that is being 'pumped' then I will have a good day. At RebelTraders there will NEVER be any stock 'pumping, ever!

Portfolio Update

Current Rebeltrader open trades:

AKS 4.6% gain
WDC 4.5% gain
GRP 2.3% gain
BIG 1.9% gain
ONT 1.8% gain
ALGN 1.3% gain
NTGR 0.8% gain
PDGI 0.5% gain
WWAT 0.4% gain
BVF 0.2% gain

All 10 swing trade slots are now full. No new trades (except for adding to existing trades where I am scaling in). The first swing trade to make at least 10% gain will be considered for sale to release a spot for a new trade. However, if the trade still has a technical indication for a higher move than the trade will be held longer.