Made the call...

Yesterday I was not liking how the market was looking early on in the day. Too many trades were going through that gave me the feeling that some big money was quietly looking for the exit.

I sold my open positions yesterday and locked in the gains up to that point. I did not want to see them evaporate in what was shaping up to look like a trap for the bulls. Even though the market ended the day yesterday up it still looked like a trap. And today that feeling of a trap was evidently true. The bears came out of hiding right as the market opened and ran off with the bulls lunch (money)!



This morning I said as the market opened that today was a day to stay out of the markets. That the volatility would spike today. And it did. So what is this volatility (which we measure by charting the symbol VIX)?

Volatility is the measure of the tendency of a market or security to rise or fall sharply within a short period of time. It is typically measured by the standard deviation of the return of an investment. Standard deviation is a statistical concept that denotes the amount of variation or deviation that might be expected. So what is this VIX thing?

The VIX is a measure of the volatility of options prices on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). The VIX, even though is a measure of options pricing has become a popular gauge for the overall markets' volatility. And we can use it to give us a visual presentation of just how volatile a market is. In general when the VIX goes up then the markets are more likely to have wild price swings.. or even a downright sell-off. When the VIX is low the market is considered 'safe' and investors are more prone to enter a trade when they feel it is safe.

Think of VIX as an earthquake Richter scale. When it goes up then everything starts shaking, and crashing down! When the VIX is low everything is safe and stable.

As an example. If you were to apply the formula that makes up the VIX to your certificate of deposit at your local bank which offers a fixed rate of return you know what the volatility measurement would be? Zero of course. If you have a rate which is locked and can not change then there is no deviation and subsequently a zero volatility.

There are three variations of the volatility indicators

• VIX tracks the volatility of options within the S&P 500


• VXN is for the Nasdaq 100


• VXD is for the Dow Jones Industrial Average

But the VIX has become the most popular for traders to gauge the overall market volatility. The chart below shows the relationship between the VIX and the S&P 500 SPX

Notice on the chart that the S&P 500 index (red) takes a dive when the volatility (blue) spikes. Day traders love a little volatility in their coffee each day. But for us swing traders and position traders too much volatility can play havoc with our setups. So the smart thing for us to do is to wait out the storm. When the market settles down then we make our moves. And when an earthquake hits we duck and cover and hold our chips close!

Fp80

Keeping records of your trades is a key to success

One of the main features of this site is not only to help you find good trade ideas & chart setups but to also help teach the aspects of trading successfully.

One very important trait of the successful trader is to keep a journal of the trades they take. It is important to keep notes on why you enter a trade and why you exit a trade. Over time this information is key to learning from mistakes and to focus on what works well.

For example, if you examine all of your trades and you find that for some reason that trades you enter when the market opens perform worse for you as compared to trades you take near the market closing then that tells you that you need to avoid buying into new positions when the market first opens!

Keeping good notes on your trades is important. I have created a trading journal sheet for you to use. Feel free to download it and use it often! On the right hand side of the web page under the heading "Rebel Trader Links" click on trading journal. This will download a PDF file that you can print and use.

A link to the file is also provided here:

http://downloads.rebeltraders.net/rebeltrader_journal%20sheet.pdf

Vacation Day !

That is what you should do with the markets today. The small rally yesterday is a trap for the bulls. Take a day off from entering any new swing trades today. Today the volatility will spike and the swings in the major indices will be more extreme.

This makes for a good day trading type of day for the experienced trader. But for the swing/position trading this is a day that will just leave you nauseous from the seesaw motion today.

I'm not convinced yet...

I'm not convinced that we are out of the woods. Looking over the DOW chart pay particular attention to my notes on the DI indicator at the bottom of the chart.

In early May we were getting the warning signs that the bull rally was getting tired. The DI+ topped and started rolling over. Need to see that get above the trend line (tan line) to restore confidence that the bears have left the building.

I'll be looking over the charts tonight...

After the morning storm that rolled through the markets and sent chills through the bulls ended by the mid afternoon and some sectors recovered pretty well. Will need to see how they look and if it is just bears setting a trap for the bulls.



The morning started off with the financial sector taking a hit. That combined with some early high volume made me decide to take the chips off the table in my open trades. I wanted to protect my gains.



As the day went on there were a few quick rallies but they were swept away. But in the afternoon it started to hold. Hopefully this is not a trap being carefully laid out by the bears!



More later..



FP80

Market still in a state of high volatility

At 2pm were having some buying step in. But with the volatility and yesterdays big drop I still feel it was the right thing to take our chips out of play this morning. As I said before and I will say again many times.. Winning the stock market game requires discipline. And that discipline forces us to protect our capital. And that is what I did this morning.

Plenty of new setups to play.. when the time is right we will take a position. But right now it is very important not to get overly excited with an afternoon buying surge.. just as quick as it comes it can disappear. So far today every time there was an advance someone was there to take it back down. Need to see it establish a clear pattern of what direction it is going to take. Right now it is circling trying to decide what path to take.

Fp80

Better safe than sorry

The broad market may have a change of heart in an hour or by the end of the day.. But I don't want to risk that. Betting is for Vegas.. Not the stock market.

There is too much uneasiness right now. I'm seeing odd trades go through which is telling me that there is some big money trying to quietly exit the back door.

The markets will always be here... And we will go right back in as soon as the ghost busters come in and sweep out the monsters.

Ok.. we'll get out of the remainder here

Sell CPO,B,and RGR

Don't want to let the gains slip away.

Sell HGRD

No recovery this morning. Sell HGRD now

Sell AKS

Close out AKS here. We'll take the 6.2% gains off the table. I still like this setup but the broad market may have other plans for us.

ALGN

Lets close ALGN for a break even. It is a nice setup but we will have to come back again later. Don't want to risk turning it into a loss

Sell ARRS

We have almost 7% gain on this. Lets close it now. I'm not liking where this is going

So far... so good...

Early buying (albeit tempered). There is a uneasy feeling here in the market so far this morning. On any sign of panic selling I recommend closing your open swings and lock in the gains before they slip away..

I'm not saying we are there yet... but in case it happens lets get out. We can always come back in again if it settles down in a day or two.

What we will do today

I will be watching the market activity this morning. If it appears that there is some early buying and then the tables turn like they did yesterday around 1pm then I may start selling my open positions to lock in the profits.

I will be very concerned if we have a repeat of yesterday. No sense to leave gains on the table if a strong head wind is coming which may blow it away.

A scared market

I like how the Reuters morning report sums it up best..

"If life on Wall Street were a movie, this morning's show would be "The
Return of the Rising Bond Yield". And like a heroine in a horror film, the
market is running for cover..."

Quote of the Day

"It is unfortunate we can't buy many business executives for what they are
worth and sell them for what they think they are worth"

... Steve Forbes, Jr. Editor-in-Chief Forbes Magazine

We're going to watch closely before taking new positions

No new chart setups tonight. Today's broad market pullback warrants a cautious stance on entering new trades. But remember, the stock market can be like the weather. If you don't like the weather today... wait a day!

So we will wait for signs that the sun will be coming back out..

A rough day

We started the day with MTRX issuing a guidance warning statement before the market open. Here is the story:



http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070620/law053.html?.v=101



This news is what caused other short term investors, and long term to take their chips off the table. They knew there would be short term volatility due to this and traders want to keep the money moving.. "dead money makes no money". The long term prospects for MTRX are still good in my opinion. But what happens here is that investors, hedge funds, big money, retail money, etc.. do not want to wait around for the stock to recover. So they sell out quickly and move their money into another play. So we have to do the same thing. Remember that the most important aspect of stock trading (short term swing trades or long term buy and hold) is to protect your capital and control your loses. And that is what we had to do. The stock took a dive soon after the market opened and there was nothing to do except to get out as quick as possible. Which is what happened because I had a stop loss already in place which sold my shares automatically when it dropped. I took a 6.2% loss on the MTRX trade.



Later in the day I sold 1/2 of the ARD position for a 16% gain. And then I set a sell stop at $56.50 on the remaining 1/2. The idea here was that I would give some room to ARD to keep going but with the broad market sell off later in the day the stock price began to fall. The sell stop sold my shares automatically at $56.50 and protected my gains. So the remaining 1/2 provided a 15% gain. And after I sold my shares the price kept dropping. But I was already out with my profits.



The remainder of the FP80 portfolio holdings are all still 'in play'. All are still green with the exception of HGRD which is now about 2% below the buy point. This is not a reason to sell yet. The pain is not so severe with HGRD that it requires it to be sold. Tomorrow we may see the broad market recover some and them HGRD would also rebound some. So we still have a play in HGRD and we will watch it closely (as we would do with any stock that is near a stop out point). The other holdings are still nice and green and we will keep watching them. The FP80 portfolio is still in a nice profit after only 3 weeks of starting the new portfolio for the board here. If the broad market sell off today continues and brings down all sectors even more then we will sell some of the other holdings and lock in the profit.


As the DOW chart has been indicating on my public charts list we need to see the DOW move above resistance in order for us to resume our bull market rally. Right now we're in a gray area.. somewhere between bull and bear. That is why I have the yellow flag up.


But in all types of markets there are plays out there. Just harder to find sometimes. But I'll keep looking!

So why did investors and traders leave the table early today and take their chips with them? It started with those pesky bond yields again. The 10 year note yield went back up again today to 5.14%. Remember that when bond yields go up the stocks usually will go down. And then the financial sector was hit with news that Bear Sterns may be closing shop on some mortgage funds.. More spillover crap from that whole sub-prime lending debacle. So this news sent worries through the financial sector.

So there it is for another day.. More later

"May the Bulls be with you"

FP80

Market is weak

A reminder that the "yellow flag" is still on the track. Extra caution is required. In the future when I see the market in a good bull run I will have a green flag, and a red one for a bear market.

Right now there is indecision and some sideways trading.. Yellow flag is warranted.

ARD - another update

The reason I sold ½ of ARD earlier today was because the chart was starting to say that it was too extended (means it had advanced too quickly and was due for profit taking). So we sold half earlier and then set a stop loss (in this case the stop loss was not to limit a loss but rather to protect our profits).

Just as the chart signaled ARD started dropping on people taking profits. Our stop loss of $56.50 triggered and we locked in the remainder of our money on this trade at a little over 15%.

See how this works…

ARD

Going to sell ½ of my position on ARD here this morning.. Locking in the 16%+ profits here. Going to set a stop loss for the remaining ½ position at $56.50.. This will lock in a profit on the remainder ½ position while giving it the chance to continue to grow more.

This is how we take our winners.. Take them before they get away from us. But still give it a chance to run more.

Sell ½ ARD at $57.70 (16%+ gain locked in)

Stop loss on remainder set at ($56.50 – which is based on the chart technicals)

MTRX

We may close MTRX today. Just moments ago MTRX issued a press release discussing their FY 07 & FY08 guidance. They estimate they may come in slightly lower for 08. But at the same time they indicate they may achieve record revenue next year.. go figure!

Anyway.. our entry on MTRX was $27.65 so that means a drop below that by more than a few percent will trigger us to sell and protect our money from it going any lower. So far in pre market there is very light trading volume on MTRX so either the news has not gotten out to all yet or there is no panic to sell.. Anyway.. we'll see how it trades after the bell.

If it sells off then we take our money back out and move on.. That's the whole idea of swing trading.

Update on CPO

Corn Products International (CPO) which entered the FP80 portfolio on June 11th got a boost this morning from Zacks. Today Zacks profiled CPO in their morning newsletter as a strong buy citing the good earnings reports and projected EPS growth.

While this is good news for CPO and certainly highlights that CPO has a good long term investment potential we are mostly swing traders here which means we capitalize on short term quick profit moves in price. The average swing trade holding is anywhere from a few days to a few months.

The concept is to keep taking quick gains and roll them over into the next holding. Our goal is to achieve much higher gains on an annualized basis over what you would achieve by just "buy and hold" strategy.

Is is important to remember that with any type of investments (swing trade, position trade, buy and hold, etc.) that proper money management is critical to success. You always protect your capital! With swing and position trading you divide your capital into 10 pieces (if your new to swing trading then don't try to get too aggressive and divide up your capital any more than the 10 pieces.. over time you can adjust this but stick with 10 for now).

The whole purpose of this is to exercise money management. You only risk a total of 10% of your capital set aside for swing trades on any one stock. And for every 10% you put down on a trade you maintain a stop loss on the trade (stop loss is where you sell your shares in order to protect your money if the trade goes bad). The value you use for a stop loss will vary depending on your tolerance for pain vs. the reward potential your after but the recommended value is between 2% to never more than 8%. In other words for every trade you enter you NEVER let that trade become a loss of more than 8%... ever. No exceptions!

The methodology here is that by controlling your loses to a small amount then the winning trades will make up for and surpass the ones that don't work out. In the stock market you always pay more attention to the trades that are not working to protect your capital and you let the winners take care of themselves.. There will be much more on this topic over time.

You must be disciplined in order to be successful at the stock market. This goes for any type of trading style.. Even buy and hold investing must have a point at which you say to yourself.. this stock is no good and you move on. Dead money makes no money..

There will be much more on stop loss and money management in future posts. If you are new to the stock market and don't have your own money management plan already established I highly recommend you read one of the books from Dr. Alexander Elder. Dr. Elder details how to properly use money management and teaches some aspects of the psychology of trading. And to be disciplined. There are many good books on swing trading and technical analysis. The books on the right hand side of this web page are all highly recommended. I have read them all ( and many more!) and they are highly recommended. Another good book to read is "Trading in the Zone" which focuses on the psychology of the trader and how to develop the discipline to win in the markets.

Watch BIG

We want to keep an eye on Big Lots (BIG) for a reversal to take place when it hits the 38% fib retracement level, which also matches up with a major trend line. See chart for details.

FP80 Portfolio as of June 19th, 2007

Here are the current standings as of the market close today:

These are positions taken based on the chart setups identified ahead of time. The charts are listed in the public charts link on the right side of this web page (near the top).

Current open positions:

AKS 6.94% Gain
ALGN 1.65% Gain
ARD 15.68% Gain
ARRS 4.74% Gain
B 8.67% Gain
CPO 1.77% Gain
HGRD 0.45% Gain
RGR 5.94% Gain
MTRX 5.28% Gain

Closed positions:

ARD 3.80% loss
CMGI 6.5% loss
IMMU 4.0% loss

Current P/L % = 36.8 % Gain (total gains - total loses)

Commentary

If you are new to the stock market and just starting out then I encourage you to read this article which I wrote earlier this year. It emphasizes how important it is to remain in control of your emotions in the market and to not let them get ahead of your thinking. Winners in the stock market are those with a plan.. " Have a plan, trade the plan"

The stock market is alluring with its vast amounts of money being exchanged
every second. The sights and sounds of the floor of the stock exchanges
inspire in us the images of a fast paced nose to nose horse race, the fever
pitch of a baseball game, the feeling of rolling the dice in Vegas. It is
sexy, it is powerful, and it is addictive.. It conjures up within us all
the dreams of being instantly rich with the roll of the dice or the well placed
bet on which horse will win..

For stock traders and investors the dreams
of fortune come from "winning the game" of stocks. The problem is that there is
no one throw of the dice or one pull of the slot machine handle.. In Vegas
you can lose everything on one roll of the dice.. In the stock market you
can not approach your plans of being wealthy the same way you would roll your
dice on the tables in Vegas.. You have to control yourself, plan your next
move, and strike like a tiger when the time is right. And more importantly
you have to sit on your chips and only gamble with a percentage of your chips at
any one time. That is how we manage our portfolio and protect our
capital. Because in Vegas if you bet the farm and the dice don't stop
spinning in your favor.. you've lost the farm and your out of the game with
nothing.

In the game we call the stock market.. there is no "blowing on the
dice"... there is no "come on baby...daddy needs a new pair of
shoes"... For if that is your approach to the stock market then you have
already lost the game.. for you are relying on hope... not a strategy.
Walking up to play the stock market game requires a whole different
mentally. Sure the attraction of fame and fortune is what brings many
traders.. But the ones who win are the ones who come into the game with the
plan of not winning. Yes.. I said that correctly.. Let me say that
again.. the winners in the stock markets are those that plan every move,
every step, every trade with the intention of not losing any money.. Accept
little looses and let the winners add up.

If you run into the stock market
expecting to win big in the first few weeks... you will be out of the game
in no time.. Your approach to the stock market game must be to take bits and
pieces at a time.. Don't go for the gusto in one shot... that is the
wrong attitude and will drive you to make bad trading decisions. Winning in
the long run requires careful and precise moves... such as a chess game.
Don't let the lure of the 'big money' drive your trading decisions. That
will lead you to the soup lines. Instead make it your plan to NOT lose any
money, then the money you gain will add up slowly. This will also allow you
to remain focused on your trading style and remain disciplined to that trading
style. Once the heat of the race takes over your emotions then mistakes will be
made.. And the ones who remain cool, calm, and in control of their strategy
will be the ones taking your money when you get wrapped up in the heat of the
money.

Remember... when we perform our technical analysis of the charts and
apply our understanding of greed & fear then WE will be the ones taking the money away from those being caught up in the heat and excitement of money.. The stock market can be a vicious game.. the money made every day by traders is
not mysteriously printed somewhere... For every dollar someone
makes... someone has lost.. And in order to be on the winning
side.. remain in control.. don't let the excitement and lure of big
money take over your emotions.. For if you do then those that sit on the
side lines; disciplined and waiting to strike; will be there to take the money
from you.

Brush Engineered Materials (BW)

After the market close (BW) lowered their Q2 EPS guidance and also lowers FY07 EPS guidance. Sites weaker market conditions as one of the reasons.

Expect this to have a negative effect on the metals sector tomorrow. The metals industry has had a good run lately. This news from BW may put a speed bump in the road here for this sector.

FP80

MTRX running well here so far. Entry was yesterday at $27.65

My chart “setup” had identified MTRX as a buy when it broke above $27.60. Yesterday it did just that and entered the FP80 portfolio at $27.65 near the end of the day yesterday.

Today MTRX is now up 5% in one day so far.

Some other FP80 holdings ARD and RGR are also doing well this morning and are in the green.

Retail Sector

Watch for the retail sector to be dragged down today by the disappointing sales numbers released by Best Buy (BBY) this morning.

Trading discipline

While we are on the subject of discipline in how we evaluate our trades and holdings.. I have a quote that it worthy of being printed here:

"The lame man who keeps the right road outstrips the runner who
takes a wrong one. Nay, it is obvious that when a man runs the wrong way, the
more active and swift he is the further he will go astray"

... Francis Bacon, English philosopher 1561-1626

What this means is that as traders if were in a bad trade then don't make it worse by trying to run faster (add more money to it). Slow down, take your money out (change your sneakers), and find the right road (put your money in the better stock). And let the correct path guide you to riches..

Dividends

For traders who play swing trades and/or position trades (short term to slightly longer term, usually no more than 6 months) selecting a stock because they pay dividends is pointless and a waist of research time.

For long term investments selecting a stock because they pay dividends is an issue for debate. And has been debated for years by many. After the market crash of 1929 and the depression that followed investors were fearful of the markets. For those that did venture back into the markets in the years that followed companies that paid dividends to their shareholders were viewed as "safer" choices over those that did not.

But what if the stock you own in your long term IRA, 401K, etc. pays dividends but the performance of the stock price lags the major markets in performance over the long term? Is it still a good investment choice? The answer is no.

Opening up a financial statement from your brokerage at the end of the year and seeing that dividend payment made into your account may look nice and may provide a "comfort" to you seeing that there but you must step back and look at the company from the perspective of how the price of the stock is growing, or not.

Is the growth of the share price going up over time? Is it declining? Or is it just hanging around the same price year after year? These are important questions you must ask yourself. And you need to ask these questions in a frame of mind removed from the old school belief that a company that pays dividends is safer than those that don't. Look at it only from the perspective of "is my money growing" at a good rate year over year. If you hold a stock in a long term investment account and the share price never seems to grow much, or worse yet does not grow at all, and even still worse is dropping then what are you holding it for? Are you attached to the stock, in love with the company, or fancy it for other reasons? You can never fall in love with a company or hold onto an investment for reasons of tradition or feeling of an obligation to it. You must always be objective when viewing your holdings. And the most important question always needs to be "is this making me money year over year" ? And don't say yes if it earns you less than a few percent a year. Keep your money moving, keep it in the high growth sectors and companies. And when the growth of a company has become tired then move your money out before your money becomes tired too and dies along with the company a slow death.

William O'Niel, the founder of Investors Business Daily sums up dividends like this:

"Dividends and P/E ratios aren't as important as earnings per share growth. In
many cases, the more a company pays in dividends, the weaker it may be. It
may have to pay high interest rates to replenish funds paid out in the form
of dividends. Better-performing companies will typically not issue
dividends. Instead, they reinvest their capital into research and
development or other corporate improvements. Also, keep in mind that you can
lose the amount of a dividend in one or two days' fluctuation in the price
of the stock. As for P/E ratios, a low P/E is probably low because the
company's past record is inferior. Most stocks sell for what they're worth
at the time."

Also said by William O'Niel:

"It's also risky and possibly foolish to say to yourself, "I'm not worried
about my stocks being down because they are good stocks, and I'm still getting
my dividends." Good stocks bought at the wrong time can go down as much as poor stocks, and it's possible they might not be such good stocks in the first place.
It may just be your personal opinion that they're good. Furthermore, if a stock
is down 35% in value, isn't it rather absurd to say you're all right because you
are getting a 4% dividend yield? a 35% loss plus a 4% income gain equals a
whopping 31% net loss.

To be a successful investor, you must face facts and stop rationalizing and
hoping. No one emotionally wants to take losses, but to increase your chances of
success in the stock market, you have to do many things you don't want to do.
Develop precise rules and hard-nosed selling disciplines, and you'll gain a
major advantage."

Yahoo (YHOO)

If you have not heard yet yesterday after the market close Yahoo announced that CEO Terry Semel has been replaced. The new CEO will be Jerry Yang, one of the original founders of Yahoo.

If you recall a couple of months ago there was speculation flying that Yahoo and Microsoft might be in discussions to form some sort of partnership. That all seemed to fall apart and not much was ever said of that again. I feel that there has been an inside battle at Yahoo within the Board of Directors over how the company was being run.

That inside battle has festered into a shakeup and a new CEO. Yahoo has been a laggard in the internet sector for quite some time. This news of the company shakeup will most certainly create volatility in YHOO in the short term. For day traders there will be lots of speculative plays in the next day or so as news will be driving YHOO like a tug of war. Long term investment is still questionable. I think Yahoo is now going to explore with new vigor some new ideas for the company. But before I put any money in my long term account on the YHOO horse I want to see it run in a few races first and see if it has legs. Otherwise my feelings on Yahoo will remain as they have been for 2 years now.. which has been that Yahoo is worth more sold off then it is as an operating company itself. Time will tell.

Firefighters Prayer

In memory and honor for the firefighters who lost their lives this morning in the terrible fire in South Carolina...

FIREFIGHTERS PRAYER

When I am called to duty, God Wherever flames may rage Give me strength to save a life Whatever be its age.

Let me embrace a little child Before it is too late Or save an older person from The horror of that fate.

Enable me to be alert And hear the weakest shout, and quickly and efficiently To put the fire out.

I want to fill my calling To give the best in me, To guard my friend and neighbor And protect their property.

And, if, according to your will, While on duty I must answer death's call; Bless with your protecting hand My family, one and all.

"Quote of the day"

" Age is a question of mind over matter. If you don't mind, it doesn't matter"

... Leroy Robert 'Satchel' Paige (Hall of Fame pitcher, 1906-1982)

Quick Summary.... Monday June 18th, 2007

No positions in the FP80 portfolio were sold today.

This was a very low volume trading day today. Almost like watching grass grow today.

One new addition to the portfolio was made at the end of the day. Matrix Service Co. (MTRX) reached the buy point today, long at $27.65.

Portfolio holding Arena Resources (ARD) was the big winner today. Added another 4.6% to the gains already made in this. Brings us to a gain of 12.1% in just a few days.

Align Technology (ALGN) was up another 1.35% today, as was Sturm Ruger & Co. (RGR) up 0.2%.

The recent addition to the watch list; Biovail (BVF) broke out of the triangle pattern I highlighted on the chart in yellow, but notice how it failed to clear the resistance above it. This is why I chose not to play the triangle breakout. Instead we want to see this move above the stronger resistance point before we make a play in this.

Other portfolio holdings had low volume pullbacks today, all minor. All holdings are still in play. A complete run down will be posted later.

Did you notice that the Dow Jones Industrial Average chart on my public chart list showed that we would have resistance to overcome in order to resume our bull run. Last Friday it hit the resistance and pulled back, today it pulled back even more. We need to see the major indices move above their recent resistance levels in order to bring back the confidence (and the big money) that we are continuing the bull run we have been having so far this year.

More later..

FP80

The yellow flag is still on the track

June 18^th, 2007

Mid day update:

As I said in my public charts list on stockcharts.com I’m keeping the yellow flag up. I’m just not completely convinced we are out of the woods with the recent market correction… yet.

Today is a very lack luster day.. It is evident that there is little conviction by the large money holders. There seems to be hesitation with moving large sums of money today. Almost seems like a lot of people took a 3 day weekend.

Keep using caution with your open positions and only take new positions that clearly meet the buy criteria established.

Fp80

A Look at how the setups have been working

My trade setups have worked out as follows so far: (reference the charts in the public charts list)
Since late May Fp80 setups have provided a gain of 21.5% (total gains - total loss)

AKS - On 6/13 stock bounced up from support and became a buy at $33.00. Currently is a 6.9% gain

ALGN - Was a buy on 6/14 at $24.25. Currently is a 1% gain

AXR - No trade yet

AAPL - No trade- chart for education

ARD - First trade on 6/6 at $53.93, stopped out on 6/7 for a 3.7% loss. Second trade on 6/13 at $49.50. Currently a 7.5% gain

ARRS - Was a buy on 6/11 at $15.60. Currently is a 5.5% gain

B - Was a buy on 6/11 at $31.25. Currently is a 9.4% gain

BVF - No trade yet

CMGI - Was a buy on 6/1 at $2.55. Stopped out on a sell off with the bad earnings report. 6.5% loss (this is why you never hold a stock through earnings. But CMGI released their earnings during market hours and surprised all the holders)

CPO - Was a buy on 6/11 at $42.85. Currently a 1.2% gain

HGRD - Was a buy on 6/15 at $6.65 . Closed up on the day for with a 3% gain

IMMU - Original buy from late May and became a 10% gain on a pre market gap up on 6/4. I held and it sold off and took the 4% loss.

NTGR - No trade yet

NTY - No trade yet (but watch on Monday.. is close to maybe being a trade)

MTRX - No trade yet

RGR - Was a buy on 6/1. Currently is a 4.2% gain

SYNT - No trade yet

Watch BVF

Biovail (BVF) has had some good news recently with one of their competitiors being rejected by the FDA for a competing drug. This is good for Biovail.

BVF has a chart pattern which is getting tight over the last few sessions. Like it on a break over recent highs.. not before.

For the live chart the link is:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BVF&id=p71947087267&a=109550861&listNum=5

Up and Running!

IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT

Sunday June 17th, 2007...

Rebel Traders has taken on a new approach to reach out to my followers and new members. This site will utilize a 'blog' (what your seeing here) for the Rebel Traders public site. In time there will be links for a "Members only" section. In there users of the members site will be able to post their own stock ideas, discuss with other members their observations on the markets, and stock setups that they wish to share with the other members. There will also be a live chat application which any member can talk real time with other members. All of the members only discussions, charts, and real time chat will be closed to the public.

On this public blog site I will continue to post my FP80 charts, ideas, observations, commentaries, tips and tid-bits.

But once the members only site is operational I will restrict some of my chart setups and commentaries to the members only section.

On the right side of this web site you will see a place to input your email address. Please enter your email address, this will do a couple of things. First, it will provide you a daily email summary of my entries on this site, and it will put your name on the list to be included in the members only section once operational. And those that sign up while the site is still being created will be "charter" members of the Rebel Traders site (even if it becomes a paid access down the road, you will be assured free access).

I welcome comments, suggestions, questions, etc. If you have a chart you want me to look over please email me and I'll consider making it a feature post with a chart analysis here on the site.

Also on the right side of this site you will see a list of links (currently only one, which is for my charts on stockcharts.com). Later the list of links will grow to include files available for download, links to the members only site, etc.

Fellow Stock trading Rebels... I look forward to us having a great portal to discuss the markets and charts. Let's go Rebels !

Fp80...