A good day...

The market was a bit tempered today but I feel that was due mostly to the surge in oil prices today. In spite of that the market still registered more gains and the Rebeltrader portfolio has done well today.

This morning I posted a chart for PDGI. I posted the chart because it had a good technical setup and I also felt it could "go any minute" so I wanted to get it out to my readers in case it reached the buy point today. And it did. Late in the day I entered PDGI.

Also late today I took an entry on BVF. I mentioned last night that BVF was nearing the buy point and today it hit.

In the afternoon CNBC's Jim Cramer plugged my GRP pick and he called it the best oil play right now.

A full recount of the day when I post later tonight. Overall a good day for the portfolio.

GRP - Update

Update on Rebeltrader pick GRP. A short time ago Jim Cramer called GRP the best oil trade play now. Volume is coming into GRP now. The next buy point is the move to new 52wk highs ($60.00).

I may not be fond of Mr. Cramer and his TV show but it is nice to know he agrees with me that GRP is a good play... LOL

BVF - Update

BVF has reached the buy point ($26.10) but the volume is light. I'm watching for any signs of the volume to pick up because the buy point is a new 52wk high and that usually brings attention to a stock.

I am going to modify the buy point slightly. I will wait for a move over $26.20 before entering. (1/2 position to start with due to the light volume). Then will add on signs of increasing volume.

Oil hits 11 month high

Oil hit $74.00... This is slowing the market a bit..

WWAT - Update

Just providing some updates here at lunch time. I had an automatic order in place to add another 1/3 to WWAT when it hit $1.91. I got a fill so I am now in WWAT with two entries. The last entry for the remaining 1/3 is on the move over $1.97

Oil - slick spot

The rise in oil prices this morning is what has a collar on the markets so far.. The market wants to go but oil has put a slick on the road..

We will see if the markets get past the slick and rev up the engines again..

Watch PDGI

In the list of stocks I posted last night that I am working on one is particular interesting to me. PDGI has a nice technical setup.

I will enter this trade when PDGI breaks out of the pattern on above average volume. volume is always a key. If the move above the pattern is with a surge in volume then that adds confidence to the trade.

The chart has been added to the public chart list and can also be seen here.

Pre Market - July 13th 2007

Nothing of great substance in the press this morning. The expectations on the street this morning is that the bull rally is back on. We will see.

One note that I do find somewhat interesting is that a good deal of yesterdays huge rally was fueled by short sellers covering. Is there more shorts to cover, yes indeed. I am sure a lot of hedge fund managers are pulling their hair out on this rally after they were forced to cover because they were expecting a continued down fall.

Portfolio Question

Daniel..



Thank you for your compliment on the trades. To answer your questions:


AMX

• Entered on 7/3/07 @ $63.31 (1/2 position)


• Added remaining 1/2 @ $65.16 on 7/5/07


• On 7/9/07 the Mexican Government announced they wanted to crack down on large companies which they felt held a monopoly on the business. AMX was one of those companies named. Because I did not know what the reaction would be I raised the stop loss point to $63.90 (I did this because I wanted to protect the capatial put on this trade in the event there was any big selling on the news. There was and by the end of the day my stop out point was hit and the trade was closed. AMX has since recovered well but one can not predict the future of what the news impact would be so discipline always comes first over hope. I did not want to hope the stock would revover and instead stood by the discipline of protecting the capital.) Recall the chart I posted on AMX when the news was announced by the Mexican Government

GRP

• Entered on 7/6/07 @ $55.54 (1/2 position)


• The second buy point (on the move to new 52wk high) not reached yet. So the average cost on GRP remains at $55.54

WDC

• Entered on 7/3/07 @ $20.37 (1/2 position)


• Second buy point not reached yet (see chart)

NTGR

• Entered on 7/9/07 @ $ 38.61 (1/3 position)


• Added additional 1/3 on 7/11/07 @ $ 38.97


• Average cost is currently $ 38.79

WWAT

• Entered on 7/12/07 @ $1.83 (1/3 position)


• Average cost is currenly $1.83

The current watch list

A note about stocks which are on the existing watch list:

BVF is nearing the buy point

NGA did hit the buy point today but I did not catch it. Got away from me.

Keep the watch list stocks (the ones in my public charts list) that I provide annotated charts for handy, you may spot the move before I do and make the play. NGA is one of those that just slipped by me as I was watching too many indices today. If you did not get into NGA today then don't. May be too late to try and get in now, I'll get back to you on NGA.

A look of whats up on the wall..

The other night I said that I have a list of stocks on my trading wall which I have been watching for setups to develop. Here are some of the stocks I like which I'm working on new charts for and will likely become watch list items..

BKH
CCC
EDO
ENG
ESRX
FDP
HAS
HAUP
LEA
NTRI
OI
PDGI
RGR
RSH
SNDA
SONE
TKLC
TRW
TSYS
VSEA
WCG
WRNC

All of these stocks have something in the charts which I find have potential. Some of the setups are for short term and others are longer term. But each has something that makes it stand out and I will be adding these to the watch list as time permits. Of particular interest right now to me is PDGI, SONE, and ENG. One of the stocks, HAUP, has a setup that looks attractive for a longer term play and the setup can only be seen on a monthly chart.

Repeat of a commentary I wrote...

With the markets getting attention again with the new highs achieved today. I want to share an article I wrote some months ago. It highlights how one must remain in control. Don't get caught up in the excitement of the markets, or of any particular stock for that matter. Here it is:

The stock market is alluring with its vast amounts of money being exchanged
every second.

The sights and sounds of the floor of the stock exchanges inspire in us the
images of a fast paced nose to nose horse race, the fever pitch of a baseball
game, the feeling of rolling the dice in Vegas. It is sexy, it is powerful,
and it is addictive.. It conjures up within us all the dreams of being
instantly rich with the roll of the dice or the well placed bet on which horse
will win..

For stock traders and investors the dreams of fortune come from "winning
the game" of stocks. The problem is that there is no one throw of the dice or
one pull of the slot machine handle.. In Vegas you can loose everything on
one roll of the dice.. In the stock market you can not approach your plans
of being wealthy the same way you would roll your dice on the tables in
Vegas.. You have to control yourself, plan your next move, and strike like
a tiger when the time is right. And more importantly you have to sit on
your chips and only gamble with a percentage of your chips at any one
time. That is how we manage our portfolio and protect our
capital.

Because in Vegas if you bet the farm and the dice don't stop spinning in
your favor.. you've lost the farm and your out of the game with nothing. In
the game we call the stock market.. there is no "blowing on the
dice"... there is no "come on baby...daddy needs a new pair of
shoes"... For if that is your approach to the stock market then you have
already lost the game.. for you are relying on
hope... not a strategy.

Walking up to play the stock market game requires a whole different
mentally. Sure the attraction of fame and fortune is what brings many
traders.. But the ones who win are the ones who come into the game with the
plan of not winning. Yes.. I said that correctly.. Let me say that
again.. the winners in the stock markets are those that plan every move,
every step, every trade with the intention of not losing any money.. Accept
little looses and let the winners add up. If you run into the stock market
expecting to win big in the first few weeks... you will be out of the game
in no time.. Your approach to the stock market game must be to take bits and
pieces at a time.. Don't go for the gusto in one shot... that is the
wrong attitude and will drive you to make bad trading decisions. Winning in
the long run requires careful and precise moves... such as a chess game.
Don't let the lure of the 'big money' drive your trading decisions. That
will lead you to the soup lines. Instead make it your plan to NOT lose any
money, then the money you gain will add up slowly. This will also allow you
to remain focused on your trading style and remain disciplined to that trading
style.

Once the heat of the race takes over your emotions then mistakes will be
made.. And the ones who remain cool, calm, and in control of their strategy
will be the ones taking your money when you get wrapped up in the heat of the
money. Remember... when we perform technical analysis of the charts
and apply the understanding of greed & fear it is WE that will
be taking the money away from those being caught up in the heat and
excitement of money.. The stock market can be a vicious game.. the
money made every day by traders is not mysteriously printed
somewhere... For every dollar someone makes... someone has lost.. And
in order to be on the winning side.. remain in control.. don't let the
excitement and lure of big money take over your emotions.. For if you do
then those that sit on the side lines; disciplined and waiting to strike; will
be there to take the money from you.

Current Rebeltrader portfolio status

As of the market close, July 12th, 2007 the current open trades:

WDC 4.4% gain (open)
AKS 3.8% gain (open, average cost $38.58)
ONT 3.3% gain (open, average cost $2.77)
BIG 2.9% gain (open, average cost $29.91)
GRP 2.2% gain (open)
ALGN 1.2% gain (open, average cost $25.29, multiple trades)
NTGR -0.9% loss (open, average cost $38.79
WWAT -2.2% loss (open, multiple trades)

JDSA -5.3% loss (closed today)

Multiple trades means this is the second time a trade is being attempted on that stock. The gain/loss calculation takes into account the gain or loss from both trades!). Gains/losses are calculated on the average cost where the stock play has been to scale into the trade.

Money management stems losses and keeps the winning trades in play. You do NOT have to win every trade. That is not possible by anyone. All one has to do is win more than you lose over the year and your ahead. After each trade is completed you put that cash right back into your capital for use in the swing trade methodology, increasing your buying power as time goes on. Remember, take your trading capital you set aside for swing trades and divide it up into 10 parts. And each part is what you use for one swing trade,one stock. So no more than 10 stocks will be owned at any one time.

Where you read that I scale into a trade with a 1/3 or a 1/2 that means I have taken that one 10% part and cut it into more parts. This way I enter into the trade a little at a time until the whole 10% part is loaded into the one stock. This is done to protect capital. The more the trade works the more you add until it is loaded. The scaling into a stock is even more important in times of extreme market volatility where it can change direction in a flash. Under normal conditions entering a trade is usually in 1/2's and in some cases (depending on the situation at the time) will enter the trade with the entire 10% part all at once.

For the new members of the site please read this earlier post. Click me!

If you are new to the concept of swing trading please, I encourage you strongly to start out by paper trading and reading some books on swing trading. Never put all of your money into one trade, ever! That is financial suicide. Practice how to manage your capital and it's 10 pieces for swing trading. Get a feel for how swing trading works and the concept of compounding your gains into the next trades.

Retail sales data was huge catalyst

I said this morning pre market that the retail sales figures crossing the wires was looking better than most analysts were expecting. So many of the analysts were gloomy on the retail sector and that weighs heavily on the economic outlook in general.

When the numbers were coming in better than expected I said this morning that in addition to them being better than expected it was also a psychological boost. Investors and other large money movers were depressed over the potential economic troubles being suggested by weak consumer spending (as measured at least by retails sales data). When the better numbers were crossing that was the anti-depressant pill the market needed. The gloomy view of the economy was lifted, for now anyway.

A toned down sub prime view today helped as well. What was big news yesterday today was not being touted as much and that helped to ease some fears as well. Has the sub prime issue gone away? Don't count on it. we will hear sub prime for a long time to come.

For now rejoice in that we broke out of the 5 week long trading range and that is a huge psychological boost for all. And signals to others who have been waiting that the water may be OK to come in now. I'm not taking the yellow flag down just yet. That is the first thing the bears would want, but they won't get that from this trader. I will keep my guard up until I see the bear tracks leading away from Wall Street.

More commentary later as well as a wrap up of the portfolio holdings.

WWAT - Update

Recall I mentioned that WWAT was still going to be watched for signs that the setup would re-confirm. I will take an entry on WWAT on a move over $1.83.

I am still bullish on WWAT for a longer term swing trade. The buying interest in this stock is still rather impressive. Was tempted to buy on the bounce but needed to see some continued buying pressure to make sure it would not run out of gas. As of this moment the buying pressure is good.

Over $1.83 I enter with 1/3 position.

Sub Prime

Breaking news: U.S. House Finance panel Republican Bachus has introduced legislation to reform subprime lending.

 

Don’t know how the finance sector will see this. One hand some in the financial world may see that as a “saving grace” to stem the bleeding this sub prime issue has caused. And on the other hand some may view it as complicated rules that if a law is passed would only hamper the financial sector and the mortgage business.

 

Mid day update

The big winner so far today in the rebeltrader portfolio is ONT. It is up over 10% today so far. A good bounce play this has become. That was why I changed the setup conditions for ONT from the original game plan. When I identified the pullback to a key level the play changed to a buy on signs of a bounce (remember, we don't buy on the way down, we buy after it hit then catch it as it comes back up).

The metals sector is good today and AKS is slowly making upward movement. Oil Services GRP also doing nicely again today, BIG is another big winner today as the retail sector is hot today.

The only bad play in the book right now is JSDA. Has not been able to keep itself above water as the word of the CEO's conversation on CNBC has made the rounds and has let the shorts take over control for now. Too bad, without the CEO this could have been a good trend reversal play. It still might but I won't leave my money in there and risk it. Took my 1/2 position off the table when it hit the stop at $16.90.

The sectors that are doing bad today are biotech & restaurants.

Now, the biggest news of all is that the DJIA has broken out of the trading range (see the DJIA chart on my public chart list: Public charts.) Right now at this time we are above the top of the trading range. If we close above that trading range then we are one step away from returning to a bull mode.

ONT - added to position

Added to my ONT holding @ 2.75

Add remaining 1/3 on the move over $2.90

Off to a Good start

Most of the rebeltrader open trades are doing nicely this morning. As I expected, the retail sector is doing well so far from the recent better same store sales data being released this week.

ONT - Update

Rebeltrader portfolio holding ONT is set to open higher. Current pre market activity has ONT up a bit. Watch for the second buy point if this trend continues after the bell.