The Day that Was - July 26th 2007

And what a day is was indeed... I have some very interesting market analysis tonight. Be sure to check out all of the charts in this post!

Tonight I am not going to talk about individual stocks. Instead I am going to focus on some of the market sectors and the broad market health. Before I dig my teeth into that I will highlight the events of the day.

In the pre market we had earnings from more home builders and as expected the results were terrible. Perhaps even worse than some were expecting. But one thing that stood out was that the housing problems appears to be spreading into the commercial construction now. This was further reinforced when the Durable Goods data was released this morning. It was showing capital expenditures had declined whereas business spending was concerned.

Then we also had today the growing fear that the sub prime (and now the prime) lending issues could erode some of the big M & A activity. Large company buyouts, mergers, etc. would be impacted by more problems in the lending sector. And today a lot of companies that are already in a takeover (but not yet finalized) pulled back some as investors were growing fearful that the money needed to make the acquisition may not be there now. This may be more fear than reality but it is still worth mentioning as it is important. Once private equity and/or other companies can't secure the assets they need to do take overs, mergers, and acquisitions then the bull market will then be running on only 3 legs.

These events sent the market into an outright selling frenzy. At the end of the day all three of the major indices recovered some but in my view this was not all bargain hunters stepping in to start buying. It was a lot of shorts covering at the end of the day to take their profits. When the major indicators today showed the panic selling was underway hedge funds and other very large money movers started shorting just about anything with downside room. And these hedge funds that shorted large amounts of money today made a good deal of cash today when in the last hour they started covering and banking their profits. Remember that on just about any down day that at 3pm you will see a bounce. The last hour is when shorts start covering and bargain hunters come in for the kill. Today I feel it was more short covering than bargain hunters.

So that is what got the selling started. Early in the morning RebelTrader swing trade NightHawk Radiology (NHWK) gaped up at the open (last night they released good earnings) but I quickly saw what was looking like heavy profit taking and the price was going to fall through the floor. So I sold my entire NHWK position. That swing trade provided me a 5% gain today. Later I added to my position on FEEC when it broke above the next buy point. Because of the market conditions today I raised my stop level to $1.60 so that if FEEC fell back too much I would exit the trade at break even. And that is what happened. FEEC is still good, I will re-enter when the time is right.

That leaves only one currently open swing trade and that is WWAT. And that is sitting today at a 16% gain.

Ok, now I'm going to move on to some in depth analysis of the market in general. Some of the things I'm going to say in the next few paragraphs may be a surprise. What I mean by that is some of my analysis goes against some of the talking heads on TV. But I call them like I see them and I feel we still have trouble ahead of us. There are some significant resistance levels that need to be overcome in order for me to believe that the tech sector is 'hot' as some are saying. I'll start off with that. The chart shown here is the "SOX" as we call it. It is the Semiconductor Index. Look at the chart and observe that currently we are right up against a resistance level. If the overall market continues to be weak then this resistance level will be strong and the index will turn around (and the tech stocks with it). If however the index is able to "break through" the resistance then I will be bullish on tech. But until it does tech remains questionable and I will trade it with extra caution.

The next chart is the Philadelphia Bank index ($BKX). It shows that this week we fell below a major trend line. Once a major trend line is broken we are in new territory whereas we are no longer in an uptrend. Now the index will trade sideways, fall more, or have trouble getting back above the trend line (remember that once support is broken that support line then becomes resistance).

The next chart is the Housing Index (a good index for all things housing, construction materials, etc). The chart ($HGX) shows a head and shoulders pattern. In technical analysis a Head and Shoulders pattern is the name given to a chart that exhibits three main events. A rally that peaks (left shoulder) and then another rally that is even higher (head) and then followed by another rally that is lower than the previous one (right shoulder). From those three events one can draw a neck line. When a stock or index fails the neck line the trend is taking a turn for the worse. This chart says we have larger troubles ahead in housing, construction materials, and in turn the mortgage business.

Next is the S & P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX). On this chart notice how we have come to rest right on top of a very significant support region. This support must hold otherwise we will be in for an even bigger market meltdown.

Next chart is the NYSE Composite ($NYA). Same thing as with the S&P. The index has come to rest right on top of a significant support line. This must hold! Otherwise lookout below..

Next is the Volatility Index ($VIX). I present this chart in a new way tonight. I examine this chart in terms of when bull markets and bear markets have been in control. Remember the big market bubble that came crashing down in 2001 / 2002 (that was the big tech bubble burst). That was a bear market. Notice on the VIX chart the volatility in 2001, 2002, and 2003. See how high it was back in the bear market. Then at the end of 2003 and early 2004 we started a new bull market and the volatility declined all the way until 2005. Then the volatility started trading in a rectangle pattern up until now. But today the volatility broke above the pattern! Could it be that we are seeing the very early stages of a new bear market approaching? Wait until you see my next chart!

This chart is the NYSE index of new highs - new lows ($NYHL). Look at this chart carefully. I have indicated where the bear market was and the current bull market is. But what I want you to notice is the blue trend line drawn above the new highs. See how over the past 3 years the trend has been declining. This tells me the economy is declining and taking companies with it as reflected in the decline of new highs over the past 3 years. Some interesting things to ponder.

Now I am not saying that we are on the verge of an outright bear market. But I am saying that we are at a difficult time and finding good swing trades will be tough. But I will do my best to find them for you. There is always money to be made... finding the right plays at the right time is what I am here to help teach you how to do.

Good night Rebels!