AMX - Watch for move above $65.10

AMX is trading well this morning so far. I will add to my position in AMX by adding the second 1/2 of my position once it makes the move over $65.10

A possible speculative play in WWAT

I don't usually follow the Over the Counter (OTC) markets all that closely but once in a while something will direct me to take a closer look at a stock on the OTC. (OTC is not to be confused with pink sheets, OTC stocks are typically low priced securities that do follow SEC guidelines and are reporting companies. In some cases stocks that begin on the OTC make it to the big boards).

I found a news item on WWAT that makes this worth a look. Today it is being reported that 10% owner "Quercus Trust" has bought 2.26 mln shares for $1.64 recently. Normally when you see a large insider purchase that is something to take notice to. WWAT is a small company that is engaged in the business of providing water and power solutions using solar electric technology. With the news of the large insider purchase then it deserves some attention. I will provide a chart analysis of WWAT in the near future. In early market trading there is activity already in WWAT. This news may provide an opportunity for longer term holders to sell out on the news. It may also bring more new buyers than sellers in which case the price will close higher today. But what I would do is buy a very small piece of WWAT here now. Using one of your 10 slots for a swing trade use 1/3 to establish a position now. If the price gets above $1.90 then don't buy. we will wait for a pullback. IF the price drops today then that is OK, still take a 1/3 position in WWAT. Then we will wait for the trading action and the charts to tell us when and where will will build on the position. But only use 1/3 of a swing trade slot to establish a position. This is a speculative play. We really should only have no more than one speculative play in our portfolio at a time.

Pre Market - July 5th 2007

Good morning to all...

A few items of interest before the markets open:
Asian stocks rose for the 6th day (except China) on increasing prices of computer chips and metals. China tumbled on concerns over the new share sales may drain liquidity from that market. Bloomberg article.

The Bank of England raised their benchmark interest rate to 5.75%. The feeling among the investors in Europe is that inflation pressure will force the Bank of England to eventually raise the rate to 6% by the end of this year. European markets are trading down overall as this moment.

Research in Motion (RIMM) after many years of paperwork and lobbying has now received permission to sell their products in China. This is a rather significant event and bodes well for long term holders of RIMM stock.

Recent IPO Blackstone (BX) has not wasted much time in flexing their muscles as they have announced plans to purchase Hilton Hotels for $47.50 cash per share. No feeling on this other than it is great news if your a long time holder of Hilton stock. I wonder if the recent IPO of Blackstone is going to provide them the ambition to be even more aggressive now and go after more companies than they have been.

Over the holiday I received an email from a friend who works for a Fortune 100 company. He said that their IT department issued a memo to all employees telling them that the new Apple (AAPL) iPhone would not be allowed in their facilities. The IT team went on to say that the iPhone did not have enough security protection features to protect company data and thus is being banned from that Fortune 100 company network.

Us futures are up slightly at this time. Oil is also up again and is approaching $72.00. Everytime oil ticks up I get more nervous about a summer slump in our markets. Spot gold prices rose overnight slightly during trading in the Asian markets and European markets. Currently gold is pricing at $655.90 Us.

A note to my readers: It is my determination and focus to always be objective in my observations of the markets. I look at a chart and I view the overall greed and fear (supply & demand) for a stock and I will always objectively report how I feel what the chart is saying. I will never 'pump' any stock for my own benefit or for anyone else's. I will never tolerate that type of action and it will never appear here. I see too many web sites, forums, and chat rooms where the majority of posts are all about how great this stock is or how wonderful some company is. They are encouraging others to buy in to the stock so that they can benefit from the increased buying. That is what 'pumping a stock' is. And it will NEVER happen here. I despise that behavior. One of my reasons for creating RebelTraders is to have an open exchange of ideas. And we will leave the stock pumping to the yahoo message boards and the many other sites that people SPAM constantly trying to encourage people to buy a stock.

Remember that the PRIMARY goal of RebelTraders is to educate, provide stock trade ideas, provide commentary on price movements from a technical analysis perspective, and to promote and teach the proper ways to make money in the stock markets by providing examples of how to enter a trade, when to exit a trade, and how to learn to perform these actions on your own. The best reward for me will be that I have contributed to a person's understanding of how the markets really work and how to survive them. For example: If I save someone from losing money by providing a long term chart detailing a specific price that should be used as a decision point to sell and take profits (before it falls even more) then I will feel good. If through my teachings and commentaries I take a newbie in the markets and turn him or her into a disciplined trader who understands how to read a chart then I will feel good. There is way too much corrupt money making schemes out there in the world. People selling books claiming that you will make $500,000 in the markets in just 2 months, or they entice you into buying some system for many $$$ only to find that their money making results are the same or worse then before they bought the system. You know that you do not need to buy complex 'black box' trading systems, you do not need to have inside information to win, you only need to know how to read the charts and determine what the flow of money is saying. All of the news, fundamental data, inside information, mutual fund buyers and sellers, speculators, rumors, etc etc etc is in the chart. Reading the chart you get all the news you can ever want.
Also, you will notice that I will never discuss penny stocks "pink sheet securities" on this site. The penny stocks are ripe with false information, rumors, poorly managed companies who are not required to file earnings statements to the standards established by the SEC, and are the biggest target of stock pumpers. How many of you have received an email (SPAM) from some John Doe saying "buy xyz before tomorrow.. this stock will skyrocket and go to the moon!". The stock they are referring to is probably trading at a price of less than .05 cents and is worthless. But through their complex SPAM and pumping they entice the uneducated to put their hard earned money into the stock and then nothing. It flops.

So at RebelTraders.. I will help you learn the ropes to survive the markets and eventually hope that one day you won't need RebelTraders anymore as I will have provided you the encouragement and skills for you to pursue your own trading career. But it would be nice if you still stop by once in a while and say hello!

Happy and SAFE 4th of July

With the markets closed today I want to post a message to wish all of my readers a happy and a safe 4th of July.

If you have read my profile you see that I am a volunteer with my local fire department. Speaking as a fire department volunteer I hope all of you will be safe this holiday (and always), remember to be careful with the use of fireworks, and to be careful with driving after a day of celebrations and family gatherings. I see too many accidents on the roads being involved with the fire / rescue activities. Be safe out there. I want you all to be healthy and ready to go for when the markets open tomorrow!

Happy 4th!

Chuck

(Fp80)

What does the FP80 mean??? Long story but it became my nickname in the fire department and it stands for Fire/Police/District 80.

Apple squeeze turns into Apple juice

Watching the trading action going on it is obvious what is happening. The run up this morning was started by some large buys. The price started running up and then shorts started to cover. All of the market knew the price of Apple shares were going to pullback due to the hype having been priced into the stock. In the run up to the iPhone release the shorts were piling up in anticipation of the expected "sell the news" scenario. But someone outsmarted the shorts today. Someone with deep pockets knew as we all figured out that there were a high number of shorts that had piled onto Apple lately expecting the stock to sell off once the hype was over (and it still will). But the smart deep pocket person(s) today started buying up Apple out of the gate and sending the price up so that the shorts would cover. So we have a short squeeze here in the last couple hours. Now for the person(s) with the deep pockets that started the buying pressure earlier they will cash out when the Apple squeeze has resulted in the last drop of Apple juice to be squeezed out.

I would not be surprised to see some very large block trades just before the bell as some will cash in on this short squeeze (possibly even the deep pocket people that kicked this off). When the price got up to $127.00 there was a war going on. Apple will still pullback. And after this short squeeze I expect it may be a rather hard pullback when it does happen. Still bearish on Apple short term. bullish long term.

Apple action

Incredible that Apple would have that much buying this morning. If I were doing day trades today I would short Apple here at $126.65 with a stop at $127.00. I see the last hour of trading as a profit taking bonanza in Apple.

 

NOTE: Day trades are for experienced day traders only. Do not enter this trade if you are new to the markets or only do swing trades. Day trading is a whole different animal.

 

 

 

 

WDC - Long @ $20.37 (1/2 position)

That did not take long. Price target reached. Went long with a ½ position at $20.37

Update On WDC play

I still don't like the short trading day and the overall lower volume. But WDC is still holding up well. Here is what I will do. slight modification from the original plan for WDC.

Buy 1/2 position on WDC on a move above $20.35 if it gets there today, But not until it reaches above $20.35 !

Another FP80 play is nearing a buy point

but don't buy! (just yet). WDC is almost reaching the buy point as show on the chart. But the volume is way too small for a comfortable entry today. Even if you see the price on WDC extend up past the line on the chart hold off on pushing any buttons on it. While it looks good the volume is not to my liking. So we wait. That's all, not a big deal. Better volume will come and give us better confidence in the trade.

AMX - long @ $63.31

Missed my buy point by a some cents but not a big deal. Entering AMX at $63.31 (1/2 position only at this point)

BIG - adding to position at $30.66

Gapped up on us. Add your additional 1/3 for this position here between 30.50 to 30.85.

Add the final 1/3 to this swing trade when the price breaks above $31.80.

Based on how it closes today I may be raising the stop loss price to protect our capital invested so far. Will address that tonight after the market is closed.

Pre market July 3rd 2007

Today will be a short day (markets close at 1pm EST). Don't expect too much to happen today. On a short trading day the volume will generally be on the light side. Brokers and big money managers are heading out of Manhattan today to get to the Hampton's and beyond before the traffic gets bad !

There is not much in the way of significant news to report this morning. Apple is catching a little bit of pre market up ticks but by the end of the day my feeling is AAPL will be down again. I am near term bearish on apple but long term bullish.

Yahoo (YHOO), a stock that many investors and traders have given up on (including me) saw this morning an analyst upgrade. Oppenheimer raised their FY07 revenue estimates for Yahoo based on their view that the management changes and their new ad revenue system will pay off. For me I will remain the skeptic and wait for the proof in the charts. I am bearish on YHOO.

Crude oil is currently at about $71. Here are some thoughts on the market for the summer months. Remember that the summer period is usually the slowest in the markets. The "summer slump" as some call it. If oil continues to rise then we will have a greater chance of breaking to the downside of our current market trading range (see DOW chart on my public charts list). If that happens then will will indeed have a summer slump with a bearish summer. I maintain my long term bullish stance on the markets. Just have to watch that the oil prices don't send the bulls off to summer camp!

New watch list item - AMX -

Added AMX to the watch list.

Swing Trading Basics

Shortly I will be doing a multi part discussion on the basics of swing trading. The topic will cover everything from the type of equipment one needs (and does not need) to money management, discipline, stop loss, and executing the trade.

You can consider this as a "swing trade 101". It will be throughout the month of July.

Fp80

Big up day on light volume

The only real notable event today was the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) released their June manufacturing index. The index was 56% which was a bit higher than the market was expecting. This eased the minds of some in that it suggests a lighter inflation picture. Remember that the markets are all about greed and fear. The bulls and bears will jump all over any news that feeds them. While there was food for the bulls today it only takes something else to turn the table and get the bears hungry.

The market advance today brought AKS up to my buy point. AKS was entered long @ $38.58.

Current open position BIG also advanced well today and got close to the second buy point for adding the next 1/3 of the swing trade funds.

Watch list item WDC also advanced fairly well today and if the upward move continues then we will reach the buy point.

Some subscribers to RebelTraders knows I am long on FRPT as a long term play. The close on Friday was a great price for any new investors. Today that proved to be correct. FRPT rallied almost 10% today. And after the close of the market today there was news that Congress may be adding additional funds to purchase 4 times more vehicles, the type that FRPT builds. This will most likely add to the momentum in FRPT.

On the DOW index we are still stuck inside this trading range that we have been in for a month now. We really need to see a move out of this range in order to see the market regain some composure and get the volatility back down and stable.

Fp80

Volume drying up..

Just nothing going on in the afternoon to bring investors and traders to the tables. We had good buying in the morning session as the 3rd quarter kicks off. But being the holiday week the volume is low. And in the afternoon it became evident. One good thing is that there seems to be no rush to be selling anything so that is why I took the position in AKS earlier.

Most sectors with the exception of Paper, Comp Hardware, Software, and Housing are doing good.

Buying AKS here

After some early morning buying volume it had tapered off and fell back slightly. It is picking up again and now I'm going to take a position in AKS here at $38.58

Long AKS @ 38.58

AKS has reached buy point

But is struggling to stay above it.. I’m waiting for a sign that it is pushing through with force before going long.

Pre Market July 2nd 2007

Well in pre market trading Apple is trading down a tad bit. No surprise there. I have been saying that the hype of the iPhone has been priced in the share price leading up to the iPhone release. And now those that were investing in Apple since the first announcement of the iPhone are now taking their profits as they know this is the end of the line for the iPhone hype. Think of the action in Apple today like the action that takes place at the airport. You know those shuttle trains that carry you from the ticketing concourse to the gates, the doors open on one side of the train while the people already on the train exit on the other side. Well that is what will be happening in the Apple stock today. The doors will open on one side of the train and people will leave while the doors on the side will open and new people will enter. Now the big question here for Apple is will there be more people exiting the train then there are new people entering? In the short term the answer is no. That is why we are seeing the AAPL shares trading down in pre market. Over the weekend there have been some negative reviews of the iPhone released and some problems with getting the phones activated are also making their way through the press. All of this combined will add to the "end of the line" for the iPhone hype. What does the future hold for Apple? In my view it is still a good long term hold. There will be short term volatility as people are cashing in their profits and the train slowly fills up with new money.

The week ahead will be light as far as economic data released:

• Monday: ISM Index


• Tuesday: Pending home sales data, factory orders (markets close early on Tuesday)


• Wednesday: markets closed


• Thursday: Initial claims data


• Friday: Employment data

The events over the weekend in the United Kingdom seem to have been a non issue in the markets so far. Futures are up a bit and oil fell a a tad but is still over that psychological number of $70.00. With this being a holiday week expect the trading volume to be slightly lower than normal overall.

Be sure to keep an eye on the new watch list items.

7-1-07 New Watch List items

New watch list items:

AKS (updated setup)
BVF (updated setup)
ONT
JOSB
NGA
GRP
WDC

AKS and BVF are from the previous watch list but remain possible plays, charts have been updated.

Please see the public charts list for the explanation on each item. Some of the plays have split entries (1/2 at one price and 1/2 at another price): http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2147404

In the public charts list for Rebel Traders I will use the following format in the title of each stock:

Any chart preceded with ### is an index.
Any chart preceded with ## is a current open trade I am in.
Any chart preceded with # is a watch list item

With the events over the past two days in the United Kingdom we have to see how this will affect the markets. Because we are currently in a trading range in the major indices this may prolong this type of trading. We have to see.

You will notice that some of the new charts in the watch list are weekly charts instead of a daily chart. It is important to remember that all good traders will always check backwards to get the big picture of support and resistance levels. Looking at a daily chart for the past few months may give some clues about the current stock health but one always needs to look back in time much more to see what obstacles the stock will still need to challenge. Always study your own stock plays by looking at weekly and even monthly charts to get the big picture. Even swing traders need to do this. Just because we may hold a stock for a few days up to a few months does not mean we only need to concern ourselves with the daily charts. On the contrary, for us to benefit the most and have the best picks we need to see back in time where major events (support and resistance) are at.