New Watch List Item - SCUR

Add SCUR to your watch list. The technical analysis of this stock indicates a building momentum along with improving financial health. This company is involved with security software. At this time the stock is right up against a trend line (resistance). A buy point is only when it breaks above the trend.

This company reports earnings on July 26th AMC (AMC: After Market Close) so it is too risky to take an entry before then. If on the 26th the company reports good numbers then watch it for the move over resistance.

Live chart

Static chart shown here in this post.

The day that Was - July 17th 2007

Sub Prime made the headlines again after the market closed. It is being reported that a comment made by Bear Sterns is that two of their hedge funds with ties to the sub prime mortgage business are now essentially worthless. Reportedly now worth less than 10 cents on the dollar. I said last week that we have not heard the end of the sub prime woes and I'll say it again here. The sub prime problem has yet to fully propagate into other areas/sectors. There will be more headlines concerning sub prime in the months to come.

The financial sector needs to be watched closely as it is a heavyweight in the markets. Where the financials go the rest of the market follows in time. We must get some good earnings reports from the big finance giants in the coming days and weeks to lift the sector. Today there was profit taking ahead of what I see to be apprehension on the part of the traders of more bad news on the financial sector front.

Today On2 Technologies (ONT) hit my stop and my trade was closed automatically. I sold my shares at $2.55. A shame too, because I am still bullish on ONT. But rules are rules, discipline in trading is the ONLY way you will survive and win the game for the long term. If you never set limits (stop loss) for your investments then you are on the road to a financial disaster, for you are relying on hope and not a plan. All winners on Wall Street will tell you the same thing, they have a plan on when they exit their trades/investments, no ifs, ands, or buts. Preservation of capital comes first.

Remember that you have to earn more gains to make up for your losses. Lets say you have a stock that you bought at $20 a share last year, and the current price is $10 a share. You have lost 50% of your money on that investment. Now in order to get your money back (break even) that stock now has to increase 100%. That is why the experts and pros always cut their losses quickly and within a set limit. It is easier to make up for the loss if your losses are kept small.

RebelTrader portfolio swing trade BIG (retail sector) is lagging. But looking at the sector chart I'm seeing what is looking like a bounce coming soon. So I'm still bullish on BIG as long as the sector is still bullish which it is, just in a pullback currently. The $RLX chart is telling me a rebound is near.

RebelTrader portfolio swing trade Western Digital (WDC) is in a good spot right now as that sector is in a breakout mode. Will keep WDC for as long as I can squeeze a gain out of it. NetGear (NTGR)is also on a good run and will keep an eye on it so as to not let the gains slip away if the broad markets turn sour.

GRP, the oil service sector company is set to rebound according to the oil services sector chart. I'm watching the $OSX and I see a bounce from the moving average to be the most likely event to happen.

The remainder of this week will be wild in the markets I anticipate. Be sure to have a seat belt on! Any bad earnings reports from large companies are going to be felt in the markets more than usual.

Yahoo & Intel Report

And the market did not like their data. Intel slides in after hours trading. And Yahoo also is to the downside.

This is troublesome to me as the expectations were already low on the part of the analysts. And both companies were expected to be able to beat those numbers. Intel was essentially "in line" and Yahoo was "in line" but lowers 07 guidance slightly.

There are many companies that the market looks to as a barometer for the market, Intel & Yahoo are two of those companies. We have to see how the trading ends in after hours to determine the psychological mood of the money holders.

Chart Request - MTW

Chart analysis for MTW as requested by a fellow Rebel Trader

Mid day update

The late morning - early afternoon trading has been essentially sideways. Currently the major indices are holding up well so far. Rebel Trader portfolio swing trades NTGR and WDC are up nicely.

But things won't be quiet after the market closes.. Today after the market closes we will be getting earnings reports from Yahoo (YHOO) and Intel (INTC). One thing I am concerned about regarding Intel is that the price has been running up the past few sessions in anticipation of a good report. This often leads to what is called "sell the news". Even if the numbers are good those that have been buying it up ahead of the numbers being released will sell off on the influx of new money coming in. It is always a battle with existing holders wanting to cash out and new buyers (who were waiting for earnings numbers to come out)wanting to buy in. Many times the numbers of sellers outnumbers the buyers in the short term and the stock price falls. If you ever watched a company release very good earnings numbers and then wonder why the price fell afterwards it is because of the "sell the news". Another way to look at this is that the numbers the company releases are already "priced in" the stock by the time they are released.

I wrote an article on "sell the news" some time ago, I will try to locate it and post it to the board tonight.

NightHawk Radiology (NHWK)

On my watch list I have NHWK as a buy on the move over $18.95. This buy point is approaching fast. If I did not have all 10 slots currently filled I would be adding NHWK today if it makes it above $18.95

Current open swing trades

Most of my open swing trades have opened to the upside this morning. NTGR is performing very well.

BIG has been basing around the original buy point. This stock is not catching the retail wave yet. I'm sticking with it until I see a signal that says it is not going to make it.

ONT has pulled back to the support range. Each time ONT pulls back to around the $2.60 area then some big trades go through on an uptick. Other traders are seeing this $2.60 area as a key support as well. I'm holding onto ONT

WDC is catching the beginning of a tech rally (albeit still weak). My entry on WDC could not be more perfect to take advantage of a tech rally. If Intel reports good numbers when they release their quarterly numbers then expect to see WDC and NTGR to be lifted up as well.

Crude Oil Hits $75.00

Oil reached up and touched $75.00 this morning. It let a little air out of the bulls. Will the bulls learn how to wade through the oil slicks and keep going?

Pre Market - July 17th 2007

We have some good earnings reports coming out this morning so far. JNJ beat estimates, Merrill Lynch beat estimates, and Coca Cola beats estimates. Early the futures were down but started turning upward after earnings reports were being released. The financial sector (which was a drag on the market yesterday) is today looking better. With the good earnings from Merrill and an upgrade on American Express this morning I'm looking for a rebound in the financial sector today.

Current RebelTrader swing trade NetGear (NTGR) got a boost this morning from JMP Securities. JMP says this morning that demand for NTGR products has been exceptionally strong.

We are waiting for the June PPI data to be released at 8:30am. We will see a move in the futures following the data.

The day that was - July 16th 2007

Today started out looking good. Many of the sectors were either positive or were neutral. Then without notice things started to change. For a period of time today it was as if the big money was spinning a bottle to pick what sector they would put their chips. Then the financials took a nose dive towards the end of the day.

The DOW ended the day up but when you lift the hood we actually had a down day. Declines led advances by a fairly sizable margin. On the Nasdaq the advances was 33% vs declines of 63% (4% unchanged). And those ratios were similar on the other boards.

If was a strange trading day to say the least. By lunch time it was difficult to get a handle on what the best sectors really were.

Has Apple (AAPL) reached a top ?

I am seeing signs that Apple may have exhausted it's recent run. On the attached chart I see some warning signs that indicate that the run may be over for now. Looks to me that $140.00 is going to be the limit for the time being.

Some odd trading today

First we started the day with the financial sector (which had been beaten down recently) seeing some buying. Then the volume kind of dried up before lunch time across the board. And now the financial sector is selling off again. Strength in the sectors is floating from one to the other. It would seem that the large money movers are "hunting" (maybe the better term would be fishing) for where to best put their money.

Kind of like going to an arcade and you go from one video game to another playing one quarter. You keep doing this until you find the machine you like and then you drop a ton of quarters into that machine.

Crude Oil is heading up again

There is always something that gets in the way of the bulls. Now Crude oil is over $74.00 and $75.00 is possible soon. $75.00 would be another psychological number that would strike fear in many.

Lets see if the bulls can dance their way around the oil slick..

ONT - Update

ONT has pulled back to the support level. There are many whipsaws going on this morning in many stocks. I am not concerned with ONT's pullback at this time. Watching the tape I see large block trades with an uptick going through so others out there are seeing this as the buying opportunity. I am holding my ONT position.

BIG - the retail sector is weak so far this morning. BIG is consolidating again just above the original buy point. Seems to be some confusion in the market as to which sectors the large money want to tackle. I watch some oil plays go from red to green and back to red again this morning. Seems as if the large money is re-adjusting their underwear to get ready for the next rally if it comes.

AXR

I am buying a small position on the event this buying leads to a short covering rally. High risk trade.

Long @ $50.20

AXR

This morning AXR is attracting attention. Can't find any reason why at this time. The trading has the stock above the trend line. The volume is still light so there is still a measure of risk here.

I am considering adding a small position here in the event this is the short squeeze. If I take a position to go long it will be a small position only. Risk is high with AXR.

New info: Found the PR Newswire is reporting that Amrep (AXR) is reporting their best year ever in it's history. Story here

Pre-Market July 16th 2007

We have a very busy week coming up with respect to earnings from big companies. This week we will be seeing the earnings from such names as Coca-Cola (KO), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), CSX Corp (CSX), Yahoo (YHOO), Abbott Labs (ABT), Altria (MO), E-bay (EBAY), Google (GOOG), IBM (IBM). This is just a sampling of what is coming this week. Everyday should provide some news that will have an affect on any particular sector.

The course of the markets this week will be led by what companies report when they release their earnings. All the large money managers are going to hang their hats on the financial health of the largest companies and will be particularly interested in the tech sector.

Of note this morning: Yesterday I posted a chart for NTRI in my public chart list. The buy point is on the move above $75.00. This morning Citigroup is saying they are positive on NTRI and find shares attractive at current levels, they have a price target of $96.00. If this Citigroup analyst news brings buyers to NTRI watch for the move above $75.00 to signal a buy.

SanDisk (SNDK)

One stock is of particular interest to me. I like the chart but I feel the stock has become too extended here. On Friday the daily chart was indication 'indecision' (as viewed on a daily chart). I am waiting for a pullback to spot a good entry point. The chart shown here is a weekly chart.

Some stocks don't pull back and grabbing an entry becomes "chasing the stock" , which I never recommend doing.

The RebelTrader Pledge

There are hundreds (if not thousands) of web sites on the internet for stock market trading, stock picks, education, etc. Have you even gone to a web site and they have an extensive write up about some company (typically a pink sheet stock) and the web site makes the company sound like it is going to be the next big thing. They provide detailed descriptions about how good the company is, or they might talk about how great the prospects are for the future, and they make the web site look very official and professional. BUT... have you ever clicked on their disclosure statement? Or looked at the very fine print at the bottom of their site?



Some web sites provide very detailed analysis of companies and make it sound like you need to invest right away. But the web site may actually be nothing more than a paid "pumper" (Pumper: a person or company that promotes a stock for their own benefit). In their disclosure statement you will find that the web site actually received financial or other forms of compensation for promoting the stock on their web site. Of course those web sites will always make it look like they are providing a real analysis of the company and that the stock (company) is a good investment. But their interest in writing the glowing report is not for you, it is for them and their client (the company). They get paid for making the company sound good so that more people will buy the stock.



The reason why many small companies pay money to these "pumpers" is to raise capital. The company needs money and the only way they can get it is if their shares start getting purchased. In some cases you could be buying shares of a company that is on the brink of bankruptcy or in other dire financial troubles, but you never find out about that until it is too late and your investment dollars have vanished. These web sites go to great extremes to look very official and business like, and although they do conform to the law by providing their disclosure statement they usually keep it well hidden so you don't see that (unless you go looking for it). If you stumble upon a web site, or get an email claiming that you need to invest in xyz company the first thing you need to do is DON'T. Find out first if the web site is for real, are they being paid for promoting the company? And any email (SPAM) you get telling you to buy a stock should go right into the 'deleted' folder!



Now.. it gets worse. Not only are there these web sites that are nothing more than paid pumpers. There are individuals that are pumpers too. They are not being paid to promote the stock. Instead these people may own the stock and they want others to buy it so the price will go up and in turn they benefit. So these people will lurk in the many free internet message boards where stocks are discussed and post messages like " A friend who works at xyz just told me that they are going to get a big contract", or "This company is great, I am so glad I got in on the ground floor", or one of my favorites "You better get in while you can because the price is not going to stay low for long". What these people are doing on the message boards is actually 'pumping' up the stock, making it sound good and hoping to get other people to buy it. Then when the price goes up they cash out and leave you stuck with the stock and the price usually falls after the pumpers have had their way with it.



So.. what advice do I have to give you. A lot, never believe anything you read on a yahoo financial message board. Nothing against yahoo but unfortunately that has become a breeding ground for stock pumpers and false information. There are other web sites as well out there that attract stock pushers and you always have to be careful about what you read other people publish in a message about some company. Take for example the recent news about the CEO of Whole Foods, for many years he was posting on the yahoo message boards about how great his company is and ripping apart his competition. And he was doing this in disguise, never saying who he really was. He was "pumping" his own company for his own benefit it would appear. I give the "Dumbest CEO of the Year" award to the CEO of Whole Foods for his antics on the yahoo message boards.


Ok, I said in the title of this post that I have a pledge. And I provide my pledge and complete disclosure here for all to see.

• RebelTraders has never and will never take any money to promote any stock or company.


• RebelTraders will never "pump", "push", "promote", or "suggest" any stock for my own benefit or anyone associated with me.


• RebelTraders stock picks or based solely on technical analysis and/or research of the company and is completely free from any influence of financial benefit for myself or anyone associated with me.


• Rebeltraders will not accept any money or other compensation in return for selecting a stock for mention on my web site.


• All stock picks, charts, and suggestions on my web site are made objectively and never based on drawing attention to a company or stock for my own benefit.

So there you have it. There are many good web sites on the net, but there are many bad ones too. Always be careful what you read and make sure they are not being compensated for their praise of the company.

You now know where I stand. You know that I despise "pumpers". And if I can save one person from investing their hard earned money in a stock that is being 'pumped' then I will have a good day. At RebelTraders there will NEVER be any stock 'pumping, ever!

Portfolio Update

Current Rebeltrader open trades:

AKS 4.6% gain
WDC 4.5% gain
GRP 2.3% gain
BIG 1.9% gain
ONT 1.8% gain
ALGN 1.3% gain
NTGR 0.8% gain
PDGI 0.5% gain
WWAT 0.4% gain
BVF 0.2% gain

All 10 swing trade slots are now full. No new trades (except for adding to existing trades where I am scaling in). The first swing trade to make at least 10% gain will be considered for sale to release a spot for a new trade. However, if the trade still has a technical indication for a higher move than the trade will be held longer.