Thursday, July 19, 2007

Just a quick note

The financial sector is still a drag on the market this morning..

NetGear (NTGR) & Western Digital (WDC)

Both posting additional gains for the Rebeltrader portfolio. BIG is trying to stay green. Not giving up on BIG just yet. GRP also posting more gains to the portfolio this morning.

WWAT

WWAT still running up. Up 32% from the first rebeltrader purchase price of $1.83

Sonus Networks (SONS)

I don't have a chart analysis yet for SONS but I like the trading here this morning on SONS and feel this is a good entry point.

Rebeltrader is not taking a position here yet. Just wanted to pass along my observation. On the weekly chart SONS is setting up for a new uptrend. Will try to do a chart soon.

WWAT

WWAT is running well. I'm watching for a spot to sell 1/2 of the position and lock in the huge gains we got on this one.

Selling 1/2 here at $2.39

I am going to hold the remaining 1/2 for more gains. Stop loss on the remaining 1/2 will be $2.15 (even if the stop loss is hit on the remaining half it is still a profit!)

NHWK

Nighthawk Radiology (NHWK) has reached the buy point on my watch list.

I'm buying 1/2 position here at $19.40

PDGI

Open swing trade PDGI is in the negative column on a failed breakout. If there is no sign of a recovery this morning I will close this trade.

Titanium Metals (TIE)

TIE has been in a rut for the past year. Trading in a range from $23 to $40 (keep in mind that TIE went from $1.00 to $40 in the previous 3 years).

This morning it is being reported that Annette Simmons (a 10% owner of TIE) has increased her shares by purchasing more shares in the amount of $829,207. Maybe a signal of a new upward leg coming? Inside purchases always need to be examined for clues. Just like I did with WWAT. I will do an analysis of the chart and post it here later.

WWAT Update

Rebeltrader swing trade WWAT gained 17% yesterday. In pre market it looks as if it will open yet higher still. Will likely see 20% gains on this trade before profit taking steps in.

Pre Market - July 19th 2007

Looking for a positive open. Futures up nice after yesterday's roller coaster ride in the market. Oil is over $75.00 again and is getting close to $76.00. So far it does not seem to be impacting the general mood of the markets, yet anyway.

Some good earnings reports this morning. Honeywell (HON) beat estimates and that is a good bellweather stock in my book for market health. Each investor/trader has their own list of stocks that they use to gauge the market and Honeywell is one of those on my list.

European and Asian markets on the upside this morning.

GRP - Update

RebelTrader open swing trade received an upgrade this morning from Bank of America. They raised their rating to 'buy' and a new price target of $67.00

GRP is already performing well since I first entered the trade. This upgrade should bring some additional gains in the coming days.

Wednesday, July 18, 2007

The Day that Was - July 18th 2007

Right out of the gate this morning it was looking like it was going to be a really bad day. By 1pm the indices were down hard and it was looking ugly. The financial sector was a big killer of the market today and it was for the most part expected. That ugly sub prime issue was on the table again after that announcement late yesterday from Bear Stearns regarding two of their hedge funds being worthless. And some earnings from Intel and Yahoo were not great which put an ice cube into the hot tech sector. But by the end of the day the ice cube had melted and we had a fairly good recovery across the board in the last two hours. We still ended the day down but no where near the levels we saw earlier in the day. Financial stocks were still badly beaten down at the end of the day.

Oil hit $75.00 today and that did not help the overall market either. With that the energy sector was one of the few sectors today which saw buying interest. The railroad stocks were one of today's winners after CSX topped expectations with their record revenues. Investors were also looking for Ben Bernanke to say something to lift their spirits but he only added more gloom by saying that the sub prime issue had deteriorated significantly.

At the end of the day the big money started buying into the beaten down prices in the hedge that today's market drop will be short lived and we will once again resume an upward march.

Rebeltrader open swing trades GRP and WWAT saw gains today with WWAT getting 17% on news of a new solar array farm to be installed in Spain. I expect some profit taking on the WWAT surge tomorrow but that is to be expected on anything that runs up 17% in one day. I won't panic if I see some early profit taking. I did say at the beginning of the WWAT play that it would likely experience some large swings and that is normal as it works it's way up. I may sell half of the position tomorrow to lock in the gains and let the remainder ride for a while longer. But I will wait to see how the trading looks tomorrow before deciding.

One observation I have today is that I am seeing the number of "sell the news" reactions increasing. I am somewhat disturbed by that in that I sense some large money is taking their gains very quickly off the table these days. Almost like a squirrel will bury his nuts for the winter. Lets hope that the increase in "selling on the news" reactions I am seeing is not a sign of the bulls getting ready for a long winter. For now the charts say we are still bullish so bullish it is still, albeit cautious still.

After the market closed today Ebay released their numbers and they were solidly good. Also the numbers from IBM were good. If we can get the financial sector to recover then we will be on our way to green again.

WWAT - Update

RebelTrader pick WWAT is doing great today on news of a solar energy project they are being awarded. The portfolio is gaining very well and is now up to a 14% gain today on WWAT !

Portfolio holding GRP is also making good gains today and is up over 2.5% today. So even with the entire market in bad shape today there is still money to be made.

VIX on the way up again


The volatility index is once again showing what we already know. The market is a mess today.


Market Sentiment

The feeling on the Street is sour. There is not much to get excited over this morning as the financial sector is weighing heavily. And the comments from Ben Bernanke to Congress so far have not done anything to move money this morning. If anything his words so far have been somewhat cautious and what the market was wanting to hear today was some solid confidence that things are OK. The market did not get that from Ben.. yet.

New lows are outpacing new highs today so far. And declines are way higher than advances across the boards.

Rough Morning

Bears came running out of the gate when the bell rang. Bulls no where to be seen just yet.
Financial sector hurting this morning. Other sectors following along.

Watch Silicon Image (SIMG)


Analyst expecting a good earnings statement on August 2nd. This kind of a headline can cause what we call a "pre earnings run". Traders and other big money buy up the stock and the price ramps up into the earnings day. Then sells off on the news.

I'm watching for SIMG to clear the line on the chart to buy. If this trade 'confirms' and becomes a buy then it will be a quick swing trade as the intention will be to cash out before the earnings are actually released. SIMG has an 8% short interest.




Static chart shown here.

Western Digital (WDC)

Current Rebeltrader swing trade (WDC) got a boost this morning from analyst Needham. They previewed the upcoming earnings release and they feel that they will meet or beat the expectations on strong OEM demand for hard drives.

This may add to the pre earnings run which benefits us. Then we will sell before the earnings to protect our gains. Holding swing trade through earnings releases is too risky.

Always keep an eye on my charts..


Keep an eye on the charts in my public charts list on stockcharts.com. One of the charts I identified as a potential move was VSEA.


See what happened when VSEA broke through the trend line resistance.

Pre Market - July 18th 2007

The financial sector got a boost early this morning with good earnings from JP Morgan (JPM). But later got a shot in the foot when Punk Ziegel downgraded the brokerage sector. Financial sector remains in the spot light today.

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that mortgage lenders Countywide Financial, Option One Mortgage, and First Franklin Financial will stop issuing loans with ties to the sub prime lending industry. Most notably mentioned are the 2/28 type loans, which carry the highest risk.

Pfizer (PFC) released earnings this morning and they missed the analysts estimates.

European and Asian stocks are down fairly substantial this morning.

Today we have Fed Chief Ben Bernanke speaking to the US Congress. The markets will be listening closely!
Futures are currently down.

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